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Re: [sharechat] AIA View point

From: "" <>
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2002 09:10:58 +0000

Hi Morgy,

You asked for comments.
>My vote is as follows: Longterm investment has upside with new
>cornerstone shareholder with airport experience. Naturally they will
>want to add value & get a better return than what they actually paid

Yes, but 'wanting' an improved performance is no guarantee that it 
will happen

>Every new investor in a business thinks they can add value ,

Not necessarily.  If you are an index fund, or an Airport 
Infrastructure fund, for instance, you may very well be buying a 
business because it is there, and a certain size.  There is no 
presumption the investment will increase in value.

>particualrly if you are specialising in that industry or they would
>not buy Short term, I believe the sentiment will run out shortly 
>after the new investment takes it share. This will be the time to 
>build a stake assuming that all fundamentals are once again checked 
>& a check of the charts is made. I see this as a $8 - $9 stock 
>within 3 years.

You have seen the forecasts for 8 years into the future?  At any 
given time a share price is reflecting conditions 2 to 5 years 
into the future.  What 'fundamentals' are you talking about?

Your comments seem to indicate that because the share price has 
doubled in the last three years it will do so again.  Extrapolation 
like that is not a valid forecasting technique.  The brunt of the 
September 11th air route contraction seems to have been borne by 
Christchurch.  Why do you think that as air travel increases again, 
most of that increase won't come through Christchurch?

>Remember that this share will never become a commodity stock as it 
>has unique assets without competition. 

You are arrogant to assume there is no competition.  There is
Hamilton International Airport just down the road  (think Gatwick vs 
Heathrow).  Tourists can come and go through Christchurch.  AIA is 
certainly in a strong position, - but no competition?  SNOOPY

Message sent by Snoopy 
on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
but that still only makes me wrong once."

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