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[sharechat] AIA View point

From: "Morgy" <>
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2002 00:05:23 +1200

Re, Ganors article, as he has pointed out on many occasions & I think as recently as the last article on AIA. Just about every investment that a local body, council or government in NZ has sold has gone on to make mega money for the switched on investors who bought it. The NZH on Saturday or possibly the Dominion, ran articles on how airports where being snapped up around the world, the article I read also compared some of these to AIA which seemed to compare very favourably with the upside to this investment, it has key assets such as , primary entry point to the main population market, captive passenger market for the shops to sell to, It is the landlord, the possibility of a new hotel going up giving it more captive customers. A bucket of cash in landing rights each year. Just remember that this place was making buckets of cash long before privatisation.
Also & most importantly the type of investment group looking to snap up the holding will be a specialist in Airports & you can be sure they will be frothing at the mouth to pick up another cheap NZ asset using our cheap currency to further enhance the cheapness of this valuable asset.
Politicians in my experience work on cycles of re-election & definitely have short term goals, this is logical as they know they are only a ballot box away from being discarded back to the non entities that they are. They will never see this amount of cash again & of course most of them will be out of office before the full ramifictions of there crime are exposed.
The trick is to work out if the smart money is getting out or in. I read a great article on a financial site that said that by the time general TV & press where covering a stock it was time to get out & take the stupid money while it was still upside.
My vote is as follows: Longterm investment has upside with new cornerstone shareholder with airport experience. Naturally they will want to add value & get a better return than what they actually paid for. Every new investor in a business thinks they can add value , particualrly if you are specialising in that industry or they would not buy
Short term, I believe the sentiment will run out shortly after the new investment takes it share. This will be the time to build a stake assuming that all fundamentals are once again checked & a check of the charts is made. I see this as a $8 - $9 stock within 3 years.
Remember that this share will never become a commodity stock as it has unique assets without competition.
All your comments will be appreciated.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 9:32 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] AKL Council to sell AIA stake

Your comments are similar to Gaynor's in Saturday's Herald.  My response to that is this:
Can Gaynor and yourself please inform the ACC when the price has peaked at its very top so the ACC can then sell?  That would be appreciated.
By the way, it is all very well to say things like 'just starting to realise it true value' but there is a guaranteed $400 mill staring at you in the face.  And you wouldn't take the profit?  When will it realise its true value?  Next year?  The year after?  I agree that the price still has upside but no-one knows what is going to happen tomorrow.  
Thank you. 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 9:02 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] AKL Council to sell AIA stake

I also disagree with the ACC decision to sell, AIA is just starting to realise its true value.
Surely this will send this price down at some stage, and I'd say that will definitely be the time to consider accumulating. Though i am concerned about how much demand there is for airport holdings at the moment, it is a fairly large chunk to purchase and i wonder if airports are still seen as a security risk, alternatively if you were interested in buying into airports where is there safer than NZ.
disc: hold AIA

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