Forum Archive Index - May 2002

[Mark Hubbard <mhubbard@es.co.nz>]

Hi Geoff

Because you are a farmer, some of your comments interest me. (What sort of 
farmer?)


>Now  imho I think in the short period the $NZ will continue to rise till
>early next year but longer out I am pretty sure NZ will become the next
>Argentina with the potential of the currency falling 30-50% as the crash in
>commodity prices continue


Other than dairy, I am not aware of any 'crash' in NZ's major commodity 
prices. Sheep looks good two, maybe three, years out, and beef at least for 
the next 12 months until the US stocks have re-built??  Venison has simply 
corrected back to 'realistic' levels, but is, I believe, sustainable at 
current levels, not allowing for too much more currency appreciation 
against the Euro (which, unlike the $US, is strengthening, thus limiting 
any increases against it from the $NZ).


>......... The rats are starting to leave the
>sinking ship with Brash resigning and all the resignations from fronterra..


My opinion was that this was simply over governance issues, now largely 
resolved.



>Did you know that world dairy prices are at a twenty year low?


Yes, but I read Norgate saying today ('Straight Furrow') that he expects 
dairy prices to come back pretty quickly ... he didn't say what his reasons 
were. I'm currently researching this myself. The EU and US subsidies are, I 
admit, ugly.


>  Beef prices in the states have crashed....


I don't agree. As I stated above, in NZ they are currently historically 
healthy, and would seem good for the next 12 months?? On what do you base 
this statement? My understanding is that prices are still good in the 
States, and will remain so while they rebuild stock levels?

Just curious, but with a bit of vested interest ... Cheers Mark

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