Market barometer: Bush Administration could usher in another equities gold rush

Friday 26th January 2001

New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The new Bush presidency is shaping up to be one favourable to American shares. Independent help has come from the surprise .5% official interest rate cut brought in by the US Federal Reserve in early January with possibly more reduction to follow at the end of the month. US share analysts are confident the first cut will spur a rally in US equities.

Bush is thought to be good for oil and defence shares and has indicated already he wants conservation lands more accessible to development. His dusting off of Ronald Reagan's Star Wars dream of an advance missile shield defence system will funnel billions to US contractors.

The tax cuts proposed by Bush will take years to phase in but will also favour wealthier households that buy shares. Additionally, Bush has announced he wants to privatise welfare by legislating compulsory saving for US workers which will channel yet more money into the American stockmarket. The Bush presidency could usher in another big gold rush for equities that may rival the Clinton New Economy stockmarket boom.

US indices have been cautious in their response to the first days of the new Administration. The Dow Jones industrial average is still tied to the 10,500 level but the Nasdaq has come back to life and rebounded to 2700. It is thought that Microsoft may fare better under the Bush regime in the company's battle with antitrust lawsuits. Bill Gates, his company and his associates were generous donors to the Republican Party and the Bush campaign during the election campaign.

The local sharemarket has lifted markedly, perhaps aided by a stronger kiwi dollar (illustrated).

The NZSE top-40 capital index looks ready to tackle 2050.

The smaller companies index has made it up to 5200. Large capitalisation shares to gain have been led by Telecom, which has returned to the 600cps mark. Auckland International Airport has rallied strongly to 350cps.

Fletcher Energy is trading around 900 cps, with Fletcher Forests also up a little at 33cps. Sky City has advanced to 900cps and the upswing of New Zealand Refining continues at the 1400cps level.

Lion Nathan has bucked the trend in sliding back to 500cps, and Carter Holt Harvey, embroiled in a port dispute with unions emboldened by the Labour-Alliance government's Employment Relations Act, is stalled at 170cps.

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