Negotiating some trickier shoals

While a sharp deterioration in economic performance remains a risk, it is not the central scenario. Activity in the housing sector continues to moderate, and this is weighing on consumer spending, particularly discretionary spending.

Headline inflation is set to fall sharply. While core inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time, if employment growth continues to slow in line with weaker economic activity, the next move from the RBNZ is likely to be a cut in rates.

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