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Re: [sharechat] forestry and free trade by macdunk

From: "" <>
Date: Thu, 15 Apr 2004 23:11:26 +1200

Hi Macdunk,
> The forestry sector Is about to liven up now that free trade
>  appears on the horizon with china.   
> Carter Holt are opening up mills to saw the logs In china

Do you have a reference for that?

>Because of the cheap labour source, and at the same time
> closing up here.   

Well, CAH have closed some old plant and opened up some new.

>Free trade means, we all compete with the lowest
> price at everything.

True, if you can't differentiate your product.  Producing value added 
product can be a partial solution to this.   But I still believe we can be 
the Pacific's low price producer of wood product

> Its time to think. Macdunks of this world look for winners.
> If free trade becomes reality or appears so. POT Is In the box seat
> followed by the people with tree stock that bought at the bottom. 

There I was thinking of selling Carter Holt and now this happens!
CAH still own their trees.  Tenon don't!

>All the farm related companies Including 
> Snoopy's WRI will do well.

It would be nice to think so, wouldn't it?  In the past the Chinese have 
been quite protectionist about their farm product.  I wonder if any 
progress will be made on the farm produce front?

>manufacturing companies belly up,

Yes that is a worry.    My Scott Technology should be OK though.   
They are selling manufacturing production lines to the Chinese!

> retail not much better.   

Those dealing in the cheap stuff  from China, like the Warehouse, 
should do well.

>Only an opinion you guys a few 
>[me Included will win] but spare a thought for
>the losers we all pay for them

I must admit I am uneasy about a 'free trade' deal with China.   I know 
someone who was making oven racks for the inside of Simpson ovens.   
They lost the contract to the Chinese who were offering oven racks at  
20c each.   That was less than the cost of the basic raw materials, so it 
is difficult to believe there wasn't some kind of behind the scenes 
subsidization going on.


discl: hold CAH, SCT

Message sent by Snoopy 
on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
"Sometimes to see the wood from the trees, 
you have to cut down all the trees."

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