Forum Archive Index - January 2004

["Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>]

Cross post from 
http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi
---------------------------
Date: Fri Jan 30 2004 03:37
B.A.A. (USDX predictions, ergo POG) ID#25797:
Copyright © 2002 B.A.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Personally I think the chat here tonight is overly optimistic regarding the 
USD. 
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[h,a]daoaynay[df][pc13!b50!f][iLb13!La12,26,9]&pref=G
 
A correction from here ( back down ) is quite possible of course but not 
really all that predictable imo.

It would be a very short-lived USD correction ( up ) if it bounced here off 
the 50MA ( back down ) . The 6 month daily chart is a bit misleading imo. It 
shows a compelling resistance trendline halting this rally at 87 / 50MA or 
thereabouts, whereas backing out to the bigger picture shows clearly that 
there is scope if the resistance fails to push right out to the 200MA 
currently at 93.

My money is on a push through the 50MA. but not the whole deal to 200MA. I 
read the 6 monthly as 4 of 5 down. 90 is on the radar. Correlating this to 
the POG, I see we're bouncing along the 400 now as support which is reason 
for optimism. But, I read POG as just starting 3 of 5 of A down. This 
reading would see USDX easily over 90 and POG easily at 375.

A push by the USDX along the 50MA could see POG seriously stick to its 100MA 
which it tested today in a dramatic move, busting out of the 417-404 trading 
range. Thats 395 or so by my calcs.

So depending on whether USDX got out of its 4 wave into a 5 down shortly 
after the 50MA, or not, POG seems destined imo to thrash around 400 now 
until something happens with the USDX either way. You won't need me to tell 
you if USDX decides its 200MA is a goer at 93, then hello 200MA for the POG, 
easy. Like I said, this isn't a given yet. Lets see how the USDX 50MA / POG 
100MA holds out.

Response: Am accumulating physical with the limited cash that remains after 
steadily buying down from 428 with profits from stocks exited 12/2 and SA's 
early Jan. Will accelerate accumulation if POG checks through it's 100MA, 
and pile in as we approach 200MA. If POG holds 400 or better -and- USDX show 
clear and obvious intent below 85, I'll finish my physical accumulation, 
margin anything not tied down and pile back into the HUI mid caps.

These are the best of times for a goldbug. We get so few opportunities to 
reload in the bull market, but this has been one of them, and it may 
continue. Only real question imo is how long the buying window stays open 
and how delicious the buying opportunity might get.

_________________________________________________________________
Surf the net and talk on the phone with Xtra Jetstream @  
http://www.xtra.co.nz/products/0,,5803,00.html !


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