Forum Archive Index - December 1999

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

staggering increases but I'm also staggered at the technical short
sightedness. The generally accepted info is that copper will give way to
ADSL and to 'wireless' applications but all will give way to fibre optic
cable which offers much much more in terms of capacity, speed, insulation
from interference. Why then plunge into wireless Internet applications on
anything other than a short term basis? Or is it another case of how the
music industry have managed to freeze out the technically superior
digitised tapes in favour of CD's? I don't think so because Saturn etc are
laying fibre optic cable in all directions. Would you buy wireless
technology from Sky for your TV when you could buy much better fibre optic
technology for your TV from Saturn? Would you still keep investing in
Microsoft when it was about to be broken up like Bell Telephone and being
overtaken by Linux anyway? Are you really tomorrow's men or yesterday's
men? how do you know? 
Presumably some outfits like your UK one could have done equally well from
1984 to 1987...

Anyway as I said before I'm guilty of making a large (unrealised profit) on
Sausage Software but I'm not guilty of plunging into techs left right and
center or accepting all the stories. Frankly I can't wait to get out and
get my feet back onto solid ground but I've set myself a timetable to stick
to.

I can't really see the point of the argument we don't bag the Warehouse so
don't you bag Global Chrome or whoever. Either credible data is available
in the way of large positive earnings projections or its not (remember the
Funds Manager who was in NZ just a few weeks ago who said 'only 2 tech coys
in Australia had credible business plans and he wasn't saying who they
were'. 

The fact that someone (incl me) is sitting on a large unrealised profit
doesn't mean they'll still be sitting on it tomorrow - remember 20 October
1987 and all that; those who don't learn from history are condemned to
repeat it.

If someone invents a technically superior widget and then hundreds of coys
around the globe get into it....it stands to reason that any profits are
going to be competed out of existence. Take Sarah Corkill's extract where
the profits from aviation have been matched by the losses from aviation so
that overall - no profitability. And a number of similar examples were
quoted.


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