El Nino seen abating but NZ primary sector not out of the woods given size of event

Wednesday 6th January 2016

The El Nino weather pattern, among the three strongest since 1950, is expected to abate through summer and autumn but given its intensity, New Zealand farmers are still at risk of drought, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

Niwa is due to release its first Hotspot Watch report for 2016 and monthly climate report on Friday. The last Hotspot on Dec. 24 showed drier-than-normal soil moisture across much of the North Island and in the northern and east of the South Island but the situation has been complicated by heavy rains over the New Year. New Zealand Meat Board data shows more livestock was killed in the first eight weeks of the season through Nov. 28 than in the year-earlier period, suggesting some farmers are already responding to dry weather, which stifles pasture growth.

"We're expecting El Nino to weaken for the rest of the summer and by the end of the second quarter to return to more neutral conditions," said Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino. "But it is important to remember this El Nino is of very strong intensity and its effects will continue even as it weakens."

That concurs with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's assessment that the weather event peaked in recent weeks and conditions would return to neutral in the second quarter, based on El Nino-Southern Oscillation measures.

Reserve Bank researchers have estimated a strong El Nino event could reduce New Zealand’s gross domestic product by 0.3 percent-to-0.8 percent. It cited the 1997/98 El Nino pattern, where farmers suffered through severe drought and the impact on agriculture and primary food production cut GDP by 0.7 percent between the first quarter of 1997 and the third quarter of 1998.

Soil moisture figures to be released this Friday will show "pretty wet soils from Coromandel, Auckland and the east of Northland, reflecting the "good dumping" from New Year's day, Brandolino said. But data also shows "an extreme gradient" of a very moist east coast and a much drier west in Northland.

The central and western North Island are quite dry while soil moisture levels in Hawkes Bay south to Wellington were about average but expected to decrease. In the South Island, just less than the northern half was not too bad while south of Banks Peninsula, soil moisture is low, he said.

"Previous very intense El Nino patterns aren't a guarantee of what will happen this summer but we're still only in the first week of January and there's plenty of summer ahead," Brandolino said.

A wild card in the outlook was the likelihood of elevated tropical cyclone activity, he said. The latest, Tropical Cyclone Ula, delivered winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour and heavy rains to Tonga and Fiji this week.

Given the likely increase in quantity and intensity of the storm systems because of El Nino, there was more opportunity potentially for a cyclone to move south and a risk that such a storm could cause more damage, by dumping rain on parched land.

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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