Sharechat Logo

NZ dollar heading to a weekly 0.8% decline, eyes on US CPI data

Friday 14th July 2017

Text too small?

The New Zealand dollar held onto its overnight gains but was headed for a 0.8 percent weekly decline as investors await several US economic indicators, including inflation numbers.

The New Zealand dollar was trading at 73.16 US cents as at 5 pm from 72.84 cents late yesterday but was weaker versus last Friday in New York when it traded at 73.80. 

The kiwi was battered early in the week by disappointing domestic data but gained sharply toward the end of the week amid speculation the Reserve Bank may be more inclined to hike interest rates in the face of increases and bullish talk from other central banks including the Bank of Canada. It is also benefiting from US dollar weakness as signs the Federal Reserve will pursue only a gradual rate tightening path weigh on the greenback after Senate testimony from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. 

Looking ahead, investors are awaiting a host of U.S. economic indicators, including core inflation, retail sales and industrial production for June later in the session for more insight into how the Fed might proceed.

The CPI, in particular, will garner interest because "if you take Yellen at her word the Fed is starting to second guess itself as to whether recent weakness is transitory," said ANZ Bank New Zealand senior economist Phil Borkin. 

The next key risk will be domestic inflation for next week, he said. "Petrol is weighing on inflation numbers around the world and that's the case for New Zealand too so it's really what the details show," he said. Economists are expecting a quarterly rise of 0.2 percent for annual inflation to be running at 1.9 percent.

Borkin said if the numbers show an "inching higher" from an underlying and core perspective the market will be happy to continue to price in hikes and keep the NZD supported but "if its weaker across the board, you'll see the kiwi follow suit," he said.  Interest rate markets are now tipping the first rate hike to come in June 2018 versus the central bank's forecast of September 2019. 

The trade-weighted index rose to 78.18 from 77.91 late yesterday.  It rose to 64.13 euro cents from 63.69 cents late yesterday and to 82.97 yen from 82.36 yen. It gained to4.9609 yuan from 4.9385 yuan and traded at 56.48 British pence from 56.47 pence. The kiwi traded at 94.50 Australian cents from 94.62 cents.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate rose 1 basis point to 2.26 while the 10-year swaps rose 3 basis points to 3.35 percent.

 

 

 

(BusinessDesk)

General Finance Advertising  

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Add your comment:
Your name:
Your email:
Not displayed to the public
Comment:
Comments to Sharechat go through an approval process. Comments which are defamatory, abusive or in some way deemed inappropriate will not be approved. It is allowable to use some form of non-de-plume for your name, however we recommend real email addresses are used. Comments from free email addresses such as Gmail, Yahoo, Hotmail, etc may not be approved.
Bookmark and Share   Printable version
Related News

MARKET CLOSE: NZ shares up, trading quiet ahead of election; Fletcher, TradeMe gain, A2 falls
NZ dollar falls on eve of election as new North Korean threats weigh
Jet fuel allocations at Auckland Airport increased as pipeline repair still on schedule
UPDATE: TruScreen director Tim Preston urges 'board refresh' on way out
TruScreen director Tim Preston withdraws nomination on eve of AGM
Warehouse beats annual profit forecast, keeps dividend unchanged
Silver Fern expects cattle, lamb prices to drop next season, venison to remain strong
September 22nd Morning Report
FMA to step up enforcement of financial services provider register
NZ dollar slips as Fed's rate hike, balance sheet views trump local election

IRG See IRG research reports