Devon Funds Morning Note - 30 January 2026

Friday 30th January 2026

Maleficent

Global

US equities are trading lower, with the major indices under pressure as a sharp pullback in Big Tech drags the broader market off recent highs. In late afternoon trading, the S&P 500 is down 0.6%, the Nasdaq is slipping 1.4%, while the Dow Jones is hovering 0.2% lower.

Investors are reassessing stretched AI-related valuations following a steep post-earnings sell-off in Microsoft, while Meta, on the other side of the coin, rallied in post-market, adding 10.0% in today’s session on its positive results.

Although Microsoft posted solid earnings, investors focused on the large capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, raising concerns about near-term margin pressure and cash flow, triggering the sharp sell-off. The stock is currently trading -12.0% lower.

Adding to fears over increased spending, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon are reportedly in talks to commit a further 60 billion dollars in fresh capital to OpenAI, marking what would be one of the largest private funding rounds ever for an artificial intelligence company.

Elsewhere, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, striking a cautious but slightly more upbeat tone on the economy. Two officials dissented in favour of a 25bp cut, even as Chair Powell said growth and the labour market have firmed since the last meeting, but stressed that signs of cooling in several activity indicators justify a careful, data dependent approach to any future policy moves.

In other markets, the US dollar continues to fall, oil prices jumped (+3.0%) while gold and silver have ended its rally, falling -2.4% and -2.8% respectively.

Copper has experienced one of its sharpest rallies on record, jumping ~11.0% for its biggest intraday move in 16 years, taking gains to roughly 21% since early December. The surge has been driven largely by speculative buying from Chinese investors, who have piled into metals as the US dollar slumped to a multi year low, making commodities more attractive and helping push a broad base metals index to record highs. Comments from traders and analysts suggest that, with copper central to electrification, data centres and AI related infrastructure, many investors see any supply disruption as a potential catalyst for even higher prices, even though authorities and exchanges are already trying to rein in the excess volatility.

New Zealand

The Kiwi market closed lower in the session, extending a decline into the red as the NZX 50 fell 0.5%. Top gainers included Freightways (+1.8%), Tower (+2.9%), and Black Pearl Group, rallying 8.3%. Detractors included Property For Industry, down 3.5%, Fletcher Building slipped 3.3%, and EBOS lost 1.5%.

Black Pearl Group reported annual recurring revenue up 114% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, underscoring strong momentum in its underlying subscription base. Management attributed this acceleration to an ongoing shift toward higher-value customers, deeper uptake of additional modules across the existing product suite, and growing traction in contracted agreements.

January’s ANZ Business Outlook survey showed a pullback in sentiment, with headline business confidence falling 10 points from December’s 30-year high of 74 and firms’ own activity expectations easing 9 points to 52. Inflation pressures perked up, as the net share of businesses planning to lift prices in the next three months rose 5 points to 57%, the highest since March 2023, and the average intended price increase climbed from 1.8% to 2.1%, a two-year high.

While Stats NZ data shows exports rose 14% in 2025 to 81 billion dollars, with dairy the main driver. Imports totalled 83 billion dollars, leaving a two billion dollar deficit, a marked improvement on the eight billion shortfall recorded in 2024 and signalling that external balances are gradually normalising as export growth outpaces import demand.

Australia

Across the ditch, the ASX 200 had a modest slip with the index easing 0.1% down at close for a second session as the market positions for the potential rate hike next week. Tech led the declines, with growth and high-multiple names under pressure, leaving Xero down 3.1%, Technology One off 2.3% and Wisetech Global weaker by 2.1%.

Materials staged a late rebound after iron ore futures gained 1.1% on reports in Chinese media that property developers may no longer need to file monthly “three red lines” debt metrics, a framework originally designed to curb leverage, and such a shift would represent a meaningful policy loosening aimed at stabilising the protracted housing downturn, helping heavyweights BHP (+1.8%) and RIO (+1.4%) erase earlier losses into the close.

Lastly, following the stronger-than-expected CPI result in Australia, the Reserve Bank is assumed to deliver a single 25bp rate hike in February, taking the cash rate to 3.85%. With the move intended to reinforce inflation-fighting measures and guard against price pressures becoming entrenched, while the view is that policy will then stay on hold, with no further moves, as the Bank assesses the impact of tighter settings on growth and the labour market. Housing remains the largest contributor, with strong increases in electricity, rents and new dwelling costs, while trimmed mean (underlying) inflation is a little lower but still above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.

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