Kiwi retreats from recent peak

Monday 28th March 2011

The New Zealand dollar retreated on Monday after peaking at a one-month high against the greenback early on Saturday as investors became less averse to risk.

The NZ dollar was at US75.04c at 5pm, which was down from US75.21c at 8am but was still above the US74.85c at 5pm on Friday.

The local currency got to around US75.75c on Saturday, its highest level since February 22 - the day a devastating earthquake hit Christchurch. It has climbed steadily since dropping to a 6-1/2-month low against the US dollar around US71.15c on March 17.

A supportive factor has been a firm Australian dollar, which is sitting just below a 29-year peak.

With December quarter domestic product data in the past the focus is on this week's National Bank Business Outlook survey, which is seen as the first comprehensive measure of post-earthquake business confidence.

"We would be very surprised if the headline confidence level didn't collapse," BNZ economists said. But investors will focus on the own-activity indicator and the difference between it and the national sentiment index.

"While it is natural for all to feel miserable about the devastation in Christchurch, it does not mean that business output elsewhere will necessarily be affected."

Westpac said today that reinsurance flows from the earthquake are providing a surprising degree of support for the NZ dollar.

The international market focus this week is on US payroll and manufacturing index data released in a 90 minute period at the end of the week.

The euro was weak against the US dollar today in an ongoing reaction to the poor performance of the Christian Democratic Union in yesterday's election in Baden-Wuerttemberg, while the US dollar was firm against the yen.

The NZ dollar was up to 0.5338 euro at 5pm today from 0.5282 at the same time on Friday, and it rose to 61.37 yen from 60.61. It fell to A73.12c from A73.40c on Friday against the aussie, while the trade weighted index rose to 65.88 at 5pm today from 65.53 on Friday.

NZPA

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