NZ dollar edges higher after night of mixed data, surge in dairy prices

Wednesday 2nd November 2016

The New Zealand dollar edged up against the greenback after a busy night of mixed economic data and a surge in prices in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. Traders will now turn their attention to New Zealand third-quarter labour market figures this morning and the looming US presidential elections.

The kiwi rose to 71.72 US cents as at 8:30am in Wellington from 71.50 cents late yesterday. The trade-weighted index was little changed at 77.07 from 77.05.

Whole milk powder soared 19.8 percent in the dairy auction overnight and the GDT prices index climbed 11.4 percent, providing good news for New Zealand's biggest export commodity, although the increase was driven by reduced milk powder volumes on offer in a busy night for economic news and the kiwi dollar's reaction was underwhelming. Both the Japanese and Australian central banks left their key rates unchanged yesterday, while Chinese manufacturing data for October printed stronger than expected, as did the US ISM manufacturing measure.

"The market was widely expecting a fall in volumes sold thanks to the weather, which is why the NZD’s response to the result was relatively muted," analysts at Bancorp Treasury Services said in a note to clients. "The RBA mirrored the BOJ in standing pat in terms of action and words a week ahead of a US presidential election whose uncertainty has risen dramatically in the past week with polls showing a Trump resurgence."

Labour market data today is expected to show the jobless rate fell to 5 percent in the third quarter from 5.1 percent, while employment growth slowed to 0.8 percent, according to UBS. Labour costs probably remained subdued. The Reserve Bank will also be considering its latest quarterly survey of expectations out today, which will show the extent to which low inflation expectations are becoming entrenched ahead of its monetary policy statement on Nov. 10, which is expected to include a cut to the official cash rate.

The kiwi rose to 93.74 Australian cents from 93.55 cents, was little changed at 58.62 British pence from 58.68 pence and fell to 64.91 euro cents from 65.20 cents. It fell to 4.8497 yuan from 4.8540 yuan and declined to 74.65 yen from 74.95 yen.

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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