NZ dollar extends decline as greenback benefits from Trump's 'inflationary' plans

Friday 11th November 2016

New Zealand dollar extended its decline amid speculation US president-elect Donald Trump's policy plans such as tax cuts and infrastructure spending will stoke the American economy and inflation.

The kiwi fell to 72.10 US cents from 72.66 cents late yesterday. The trade-weighted index dropped to 77.98 from 78.21.

Stocks on Wall Street advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching a record high amid bets that US President-elect Donald Trump will spend more and regulate less after campaign promises including US$500 billion of new infrastructure. The US dollar index touched its highest level in more than two weeks. The market currently has 85 percent odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. By contrast, the Reserve Bank's cut to the official cash rate yesterday is seen as the end of its easing cycle.

"As the dust is settling on the US election outcome the USD has strengthened further. The NZD has been one of the weakest performers," said Kymberly Martin, senior market strategist at Bank of New Zealand. "We anticipate that focus will remain firmly on global, and particularly US, developments in the trading sessions ahead."

Martin said the kiwi would likely find short-term support at 72 US cents and resistance back toward 73 cents.

The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate to 1.75 percent as expected, and signalled the end to the easing cycle, although governor Graeme Wheeler said he had an "open mind" to intervening, while declining to say whether conditions were ripe for doing so.

Martin said the market is now pricing a first OCR hike by the first half of 2018, with the OCR held at 1.75 percent through 2017.

The local currency jumped to 76.97 yen from 76.40 yen yesterday and fell to 94.55 Australian cents from 94.69 cents. It fell to 4.8985 yuan from 4.9306 yuan, declined to 57.32 British pence from 58.45 pence and slipped to 66.17 euro cents from 66.32 cents.

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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