NZ dollar drops after jobless rate unexpectedly gains

Thursday 3rd November 2011

The New Zealand dollar fell about half a US cent after the unemployment rate rose in the third quarter and employment growth was weaker than expected.

The kiwi fell to 78.76 US cents from 79.12 cents in response to the Household Labour Force Survey. It had been at 78.96 US cents at 8am from 79.39 cents at 5pm yesterday.

The kiwi fell to 76.11 Australian cents from 76.47 cents, which is the lowest level since June.

The trade-weighted index fell to 69.02 from 69.18 at 8am and 69.57 yesterday.

Statistics New Zealand said the unemployment rate rose to 6.6 percent in the September quarter from 6.5 percent in the June quarter. Fulltime Employment rose by 0.4 percent, which is less than the 0.6 percent the market was expecting.

Economists had an inkling the figure may have been weak after weak labour cost data earlier this week.

"The market is not expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates until the middle of next year and this number reinforces that view," said Mike Hollows, director of trading at HiFX.

Earlier the kiwi weak weaker as appetite for risk-sensitive assets such as the kiwi dimmed after the European Financial Stability Fund said it will delay a 3 billion euro bond sale until next week due to poor market conditions.

That was compounded by investors’ disappointment that the Federal Open Market Committee failed to embark on a further policy easing.

“The losses in the New Zealand dollar were suffered early this morning after some negative comments from the EU and more upbeat assessment of US growth by the FOMC,” said Mike Burrowes, strategist at Bank of New Zealand. “The US Dollar Index has firmed following the statement, suggesting some in the market were positioned for a stronger hint of QE3 from the Fed.”

The committee ended a two-day long meeting with a reassuring statement about third-quarter growth and it is keeping the fed funds rate in a range of between zero percent and 0.25 percent until mid-2013, but cut its 2012 growth forecasts.

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year," the Fed said in a statement.

Westpac Banking market strategist Imre Speizer said the market sold off in disappointment at the Fed's failure to take any fresh stimulus moves.

Investors remained spooked about Greece's decision to put its latest bailout deal to a referendum, and the government also faces a confidence vote this week. The Greek cabinet yesterday supported Prime Minister George Papandreou’s plan to put the bail-out to the public.

The uncertainty about Europe's ability to work together to reduce sovereign debt and take pressure off its banking system continues to plague investors as they are the foundations of future economic growth.

Still, news that US private employers added 110,000 jobs in October, according to the ADP National Employment report was positive. This was higher than the market was expecting.

Investors are still avoiding higher-yielding, or riskier, assets until the situation in Europe clarifies. There may be some clarify after a Group of 20 meeting in Cannes this weekend.

It has been a busy week for central banks with the Reserve Bank for Australia cutting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent, the Bank of Japan intervening to knock its currency lower and the European Central Bank will pronounce on its situation tonight.

(BusinessDesk)

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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