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Re: [sharechat] Short selling answer to Cris.

From: "Cristine Kerr" <>
Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2004 17:17:08 +1000

Hi Allan,
Your explanation (presented very clearly and concisely) took time to pen and is very, very much appreciated.
Thank you so much,
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2004 3:37 PM
Subject: [sharechat] Short selling answer to Cris.

Hi Cris,

In the US regular stocks can only be sold short on an uptick in price.  This is an attempt to slow the downward spiral you allude to.  This however, does not stop people from shorting and shorting and shorting and driving the stock down as there will be many downticks in between their shorts.

The first step to defeating shorts that are driving down a fundamentally good stock is to keep track of the total volume of shares sold short.  As an example, (numbers made up for simplicity) let's say there is a float of 15,000,000 shares with another 5,000,000 closely held by people who are just not going to sell. (Family, trust funds etc.)  Some guys decide to short the stock at say $100.00 per share, drive down the  price to $50.00 and buy back at that price. (covering their shorts)  As the short position builds, you realize what's going on and keep track of the number of shares sold short.  Over here they are published regularly, so it's relatively easy to keep tally on them. You learn that they have sold 10,000,000 shares short.  This represents 2/3 of the float and 50% of the totality of shares issued.  The price of your fundamentally solid stock is now say $60.00, but they're still trying to drive it to $50.00 and you know it's worth $100.00.

Buy as much as you, your family and friends can possibly afford and go to chat sites letting everyone one who will listen know that the shorts appear to be beating the price of shares down in order to   profit from their short sales.  Result "A SHORT SQUEEZE".  Since your purchases will be driving the price of the stock up and the shorts are committed to cover their shorts at some point the rise in value will be tolerated at first, but as it nears say $80.00 and they see their profits evaporating, they will panic and try to get out.  To get out, they have to buy, which further drives the price up and adds to their losses.

Now this is a simple example to illustrate the basic principal.  It also explains why bear market rallies are so quick and violent.  It's the shorts attempting to exit their positions.  Actually the reverse of a panic selling crash. Over here there are services that continually watch for large short positions building in stocks that are sound and increasing in price.  The higher the short position the better, because it guarantees a Hugh reservoir of buyers to further push prices up when the squeeze starts.  Actually it's fun to watch when you've taken the long position and watch the stock jump 10 to 40% in one day.

On the other hand when you've shorted a stock because you think it's a dog and along comes a buyout offer 25% higher than the market   price -- you get killed!!!!  I've been through both situations.  Hope the illustration of the general principal helps -- on the other hand you may already know all this.  I  pass it along because I know that short selling is not as widespread in the NZ and Aussie markets as it is here, where just about anyone with a margin account can short a stock that is available to be shorted.



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