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Re: [sharechat] time for a macdunk

From: "Fiona Phibbs" <>
Date: Sun, 26 Oct 2003 12:36:49 +1300

Hi McDuck
Most of what you say is good down to earth common sense, but your claim - "Everything runs in cycles" is waffle.  Even cyclical industries can be overridden by structural factors such as politics, regulations, technology, demographics and changing lifestyles that can consign an industry in a 'down cycle' to an also ran, forever.  It should not be too hard to think of a few examples here.....?   The important thing to remember is to consider the wider picture when looking at a so called 'cycle' or you may be in for an unpleasant surprise if that industry is also affected by structural factors, I'm surprised a lateral thinker like yourself hasn't considered this!
Cheers Dean
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, 25 October 2003 21:41
Subject: [sharechat] time for a macdunk

The site has gone quiet thought that I would share some of my thoughts with you on systems of Investing.
My original Investments on the market have doubled In value over a four year period, so It might be of some Interest to a few If I share what I have been up to warts and all.      I rule out any company that expands for the sake of expansion or sells the premises to expand, or gets silly Ideas what the top dog Is worth.      Snouts In the trough [telecom Is a good example] nobody Is worth what they expect.     Every thing runs In cycles, so I study what Is at the bottom and about to rise.
The NZ dollar Is a good Indicator If It Is high get out of export companies [farming, forestry,etc, and get Into service companies.       Ports, airports, lines and power companies.   My Idea Is go over all the companies In a sector, and pick the two that are best and reject the others.    I invest a quarter amount In each with a strict stop loss and later If I picked It right Invest the full amount.       Five companies maximum the more companies the less gain.    I have learned last years darling this years dog, my mistakes this year were retail.  I anticipated with the nz dollar going so high that retail would be a winner, oh so wrong It cost me two stop losses.  How ever I picked pwc at the bottom and hqp at the bottom but I made a mistake with poa I sold out at $8.10 one week to early.      I seem to have a tendency to sell to soon I did that with stu and fisher and paykel In the past.     The best share In my portfolio I think Is hqp followed by pwc then aia and finally pot In that order.
I have been wrong before but I think I have It right for now.     Hire quip have a lot of assets up for sale, and a good cash flow business related to the building sector, there prospects are very good.       Power co has a lot of debt but Is a well run company that Is expanding at a great pace In a well organized way.    Auckland airport share price will rise 20pc pa regardless.       Port of Tauranga my worst performer Is the best run port In the southern hemisphere, lies In wait of a wall of wood to leave the shores what more can I say.   After my first strict stop loss I play It by ear with caution being my top priority.       The posters that Influenced Influenced me most In my trading are snoopy and a couple of the TA posters.
The Chinese leader In nz at the moment Is of great Interest to me that Is where our future trade will come from the american Influence will decrease    That wall of wood might end up there In china with any luck.
                           cheers macdunk
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