I'll introduce myself as an absolute newbie
to the share trading game, so please bear with me.
My question is how do you know about buy and
sell signals, do you use software or advisers or some
other method ?
Taking TEL for example, I want to buy it as
it seems to have gone down a bit. Now how would I go about analyzing whether it
is at a buy point yet or not. What are the factors I should weigh the stock
against before making a decision to buy.
I use ASB Securities for trading so that is
the only resource I have access to at the moment, any other good website links
for NZ shares that you can point me to would be appreciated.
Any other share trading strategies and
tips/tricks that anyone would like to share would be most
appreciated.
GM
-----Original Message----- From:
sharechat-owner@sharechat.co.nz [mailto:sharechat-owner@sharechat.co.nz] On
Behalf Of mixtrader Sent: Sunday, 26 October 2003 11:07
a.m. To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz Subject: Re:
[sharechat] time for a waffle.by macdunk
Macdunk
An interesting approach, I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments
regarding high value NZ$ and export type companies. I operate two
portfolios, one in a similar manner to yourself as a "fundamentals" portfolio
but normally with only one company per sector. Currently eight stocks
held (FFS, GPG, MHI, POT, RBC, RBD, WHS, WRI). I think this is a fairly
conservative portfolio though have had occasion to question the wisdom of some
investments (particularly FFS). Got out of TransRail at 1.16 so felt
quite pleased with myself there.
I also operate an online "technical" portfolio (not much ever invested
here - just checking out how well it does on a percentage basis against
the fundamental). Never hold onto shares for extended periods as the
charts always seem to be providing sell signals soon after providing buy
signals and also only in the market when I can afford the time to monitor on a
very regular basis. Went fishing a few weeks back for a couple of days
and took a bit of a pasting because I missed a few sell signals.
While the mixing of technical and fundamental is frowned upon by purists
from either camp I have found it to be an interesting comparison. Over
12 months have ended up at about 18% ahead (after fees etc) over both, there
doesn't seem to be much difference in overall performance between either
strategy although I certainly would not have picked some of the stocks
I invested in using technicals if I had done some analysis of the
company, the industry, or the sector as I do with the fundamental
portfolio.
The site has gone quiet thought that I would
share some of my thoughts with you on systems of Investing. My
original Investments on the market have doubled In value over a four
year period, so It might be of some Interest to a few If I share what
I have been up to warts and all. I rule out
any company that expands for the sake of expansion or sells the
premises to expand, or gets silly Ideas what the top dog Is
worth. Snouts In the trough [telecom Is
a good example] nobody Is worth what they
expect. Every thing runs In cycles, so I study
what Is at the bottom and about to rise. The NZ dollar Is a good
Indicator If It Is high get out of export companies [farming,
forestry,etc, and get Into service
companies. Ports, airports, lines
and power companies. My Idea Is go over all the companies
In a sector, and pick the two that are best and reject the
others. I invest a quarter amount In each
with a strict stop loss and later If I picked It right Invest the full
amount. Five companies maximum the
more companies the less gain. I have learned last
years darling this years dog, my mistakes this year were retail.
I anticipated with the nz dollar going so high that retail would be a
winner, oh so wrong It cost me two stop losses. How ever I
picked pwc at the bottom and hqp at the bottom but I made a mistake
with poa I sold out at $8.10 one week to
early. I seem to have a tendency
to sell to soon I did that with stu and fisher and paykel In the
past. The best share In my portfolio I think
Is hqp followed by pwc then aia and finally pot In that order. I
have been wrong before but I think I have It right for
now. Hire quip have a lot of assets up for
sale, and a good cash flow business related to the building sector,
there prospects are very good. Power co
has a lot of debt but Is a well run company that Is expanding at a
great pace In a well organized way. Auckland airport
share price will rise 20pc pa
regardless. Port of Tauranga my
worst performer Is the best run port In the southern hemisphere, lies
In wait of a wall of wood to leave the shores what more can I
say. After my first strict stop loss I play It by ear with
caution being my top priority. The
posters that Influenced Influenced me most In my trading are snoopy
and a couple of the TA posters. The Chinese leader In nz at the
moment Is of great Interest to me that Is where our future trade will
come from the american Influence will decrease That
wall of wood might end up there In china with any
luck.
cheers macdunk
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