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Re: [sharechat] time for a macdunk

From: mixtrader <>
Date: Sun, 26 Oct 2003 11:06:53 +1300

An interesting approach, I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments regarding high value NZ$ and export type companies.  I operate two portfolios, one in a similar manner to yourself as a "fundamentals" portfolio but normally with only one company per sector.  Currently eight stocks held (FFS, GPG, MHI, POT, RBC, RBD, WHS, WRI).  I think this is a fairly conservative portfolio though have had occasion to question the wisdom of some investments (particularly FFS).  Got out of TransRail at 1.16 so felt quite pleased with myself there.
I also operate an online "technical" portfolio (not much ever invested here - just checking out how well it does on a percentage basis against the fundamental).  Never hold onto shares for extended periods as the charts always seem to be providing sell signals soon after providing buy signals and also only in the market when I can afford the time to monitor on a very regular basis.  Went fishing a few weeks back for a couple of days and took a bit of a pasting because I missed a few sell signals.
While the mixing of technical and fundamental is frowned upon by purists from either camp I have found it to be an interesting comparison.  Over 12 months have ended up at about 18% ahead (after fees etc) over both, there doesn't seem to be much difference in overall performance between either strategy although I certainly would not have picked some of the stocks I invested in using technicals if I had done some analysis of the company, the industry, or the sector as I do with the fundamental portfolio.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, October 25, 2003 9:41 PM
Subject: [sharechat] time for a macdunk

The site has gone quiet thought that I would share some of my thoughts with you on systems of Investing.
My original Investments on the market have doubled In value over a four year period, so It might be of some Interest to a few If I share what I have been up to warts and all.      I rule out any company that expands for the sake of expansion or sells the premises to expand, or gets silly Ideas what the top dog Is worth.      Snouts In the trough [telecom Is a good example] nobody Is worth what they expect.     Every thing runs In cycles, so I study what Is at the bottom and about to rise.
The NZ dollar Is a good Indicator If It Is high get out of export companies [farming, forestry,etc, and get Into service companies.       Ports, airports, lines and power companies.   My Idea Is go over all the companies In a sector, and pick the two that are best and reject the others.    I invest a quarter amount In each with a strict stop loss and later If I picked It right Invest the full amount.       Five companies maximum the more companies the less gain.    I have learned last years darling this years dog, my mistakes this year were retail.  I anticipated with the nz dollar going so high that retail would be a winner, oh so wrong It cost me two stop losses.  How ever I picked pwc at the bottom and hqp at the bottom but I made a mistake with poa I sold out at $8.10 one week to early.      I seem to have a tendency to sell to soon I did that with stu and fisher and paykel In the past.     The best share In my portfolio I think Is hqp followed by pwc then aia and finally pot In that order.
I have been wrong before but I think I have It right for now.     Hire quip have a lot of assets up for sale, and a good cash flow business related to the building sector, there prospects are very good.       Power co has a lot of debt but Is a well run company that Is expanding at a great pace In a well organized way.    Auckland airport share price will rise 20pc pa regardless.       Port of Tauranga my worst performer Is the best run port In the southern hemisphere, lies In wait of a wall of wood to leave the shores what more can I say.   After my first strict stop loss I play It by ear with caution being my top priority.       The posters that Influenced Influenced me most In my trading are snoopy and a couple of the TA posters.
The Chinese leader In nz at the moment Is of great Interest to me that Is where our future trade will come from the american Influence will decrease    That wall of wood might end up there In china with any luck.
                           cheers macdunk
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