Forum Archive Index - July 2003

[<philip@goodreturns.co.nz>]

One of the great myths of forestry is that there is a shortage of timber global. This isn’t the case. An economist at Forest Research had done some work on and concluded that in fact there is far more supply than demand. I forget the numbers but it’s huge oversupply.

The issue is more to do with imbalances of species in market places.

We may have heaps of timber but in many cases it’s no good for the markets are experiencing shortages.

I’d argue that NZ timber ain’t that cheap because of the all the work which has to be done to the trees during its early growing years and in the mill. Bought a bit of 4x2 recently?

The other issue here is that “expensive” NZ timber is competing with wood out of places like Russia which doesn’t have the same costs, plus it’s closer to key markets.

 

Philip

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: sharechat-owner@sharechat.co.nz [mailto:sharechat-owner@sharechat.co.nz]On Behalf Of Duncan MacGregor
Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 11:56 AM
To: sharechat
Subject: [sharechat] carter holts problems

 

seems like that I am on my own on this subject.  Forestry and farming tend to run In cycles.  The world forests are declining at an alarming rate at the same time as an Increase In volume of related goods Is required.  The end result Is a shortage of supply.   NZ may not have the best product to sell but It produces timber cheaper than most countries can match.  Volume of timber per annum per acre Is double what most other timber exporting countries achieve.  carter holt with there shaky labour relationships have now the perfect excuse to clean out the trouble spots.   I suspect there Is more to there 15pc reduction than most people realize.  All farm produce Is rock bottom at this moment, why should forestry be the exception.  The lower the expectation the more I will profit when It turns round as It will In the end. 
                 cheers  macdunk
disc nil

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