Forum Archive Index - December 2002

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

Snoopy,
       You don't think that the "Crash of '87" was a one day event do you? It 
wasn't. The market fell for about 5 months.

 The trendline break gave good warning of significant weakness. The market then 
closed at around the same level for FOUR consecutive trading days (circled) - 
anyone heeding the warning had plenty of time to act. 

 You say that "TA would not have saved you, at least in a predictive sense". 
How about in a financial sense? The market went on to HALVE from this point!

 I see this as an example of TA working well, not as a failure at all. Do you 
know of a system that gave better warning than this? Trend followers, by 
definition, are always late getting in and late getting out. They make no 
attempt to predict anything, and do not expect to buy at the bottom or sell at 
the top. Ever.
           Regards,
                     Phaedrus.

 

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