Forum Archive Index - September 2002

["Morgy" <morgy40@xtra.co.nz>]

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Holden

Attached is the GHG Chart for the last 4 months. I can not answer your fundamental questions but here is some personal thoughts on how I see the charts. Other chartists of greater experience may want to add or detract from these comments. The way I see it this stock is on the third leg of a longterm downtrend. Two significant points I note, firstly that the previous low of approx .56 (caption A) in early July is now being retested with the close yesterday @ .57(Caption B). 

Significantly the MACD histogram bars have not shown the same downward strength  (caption A & B in MACD )in the retest, this could mean that while the bears have hold, there strength is not as great as in the previous low in July(Caption A on MACD) ie, there not  so many willing       sellers.                                                                                                                         

It looks to me like the last of the bears have been shaken out in the last downward movement over the last month, secondly, note the lack of strength in the MACD histogram (Caption B) over the last week or so, price going down but histogram staying fairly level. Where there is strong downward pressure the bars should reflect this (this occurs both downward & upward). Volume has been higher recently but not at the same level as the previous low, as I said this could be the last of the bears being shaken out. This is not to suggest that this may turn into a uptrend because as you can see there is no price movement at this point for this. Note however that the price has been in a trading range for the last few months and is currently just outside a price envelope. Look for a rebound back to value (middle line in envelope), further price decrease may confirm problems with this company, remember the insiders give away there secrets by buying and selling and this is reflected in the price & more importantly volume !. If the company has turned around and will be making significant profits in the future the insiders will start buying and the volume will reflect this.

I hope this helps.

Regards

Morgy