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Re: [sharechat] GRAND HOTEL GROUP [ GHG ] : 24May02 to 28Sep02


From: Holden Glova <dsafari@paradise.net.nz>
Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 15:55:07 +1200


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On Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:12, Morgy wrote:
> Generated by IncredibleCharts Pro 4.0
>
>
>
> Holden
> Attached is the GHG Chart for the last 4 months. I can not answer your
> fundamental questions but here is some personal thoughts on how I see the
> charts. Other chartists of greater experience may want to add or detract
> from these comments. The way I see it this stock is on the third leg of a
> longterm downtrend. Two significant points I note, firstly that the
> previous low of approx .56 (caption A) in early July is now being retested
> with the close yesterday @ .57(Caption B). Significantly the MACD histogram
> bars have not shown the same downward strength  (caption A & B in MACD )in
> the retest, this could mean that while the bears have hold, there strength
> is not as great as in the previous low in July(Caption A on MACD) ie, there
> not  so many willing       sellers. It looks to me like the last of the
> bears have been shaken out in the last downward movement over the last
> month, secondly, note the lack of strength in the MACD histogram (Caption
> B) over the last week or so, price going down but histogram staying fairly
> level. Where there is strong downward pressure the bars should reflect this
> (this occurs both downward & upward). Volume has been higher recently but
> not at the same level as the previous low, as I said this could be the last
> of the bears being shaken out. This is not to suggest that this may turn
> into a uptrend because as you can see there is no price movement at this
> point for this. Note however that the price has been in a trading range for
> the last few months and is currently just outside a price envelope. Look
> for a rebound back to value (middle line in envelope), further price
> decrease may confirm problems with this company, remember the insiders give
> away there secrets by buying and selling and this is reflected in the price
> & more importantly volume !. If the company has turned around and will be
> making significant profits in the future the insiders will start buying and
> the volume will reflect this. I hope this helps.
> Regards
> Morgy

Thanks for your TA and education on what to be looking for while examining the 
charts. I learnt a thing or two from your explanations. I will just watch 
this one I think and see what I can learn out of it. When I view all the data 
in a chart it seems this company has never seen an uptrend for any 
significant length of time, just a steady steady down trend. This puts some 
fear into me at the early stages of my investing game. Thanks again Morgy.

- -- 
Signed,
Holden Glova
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