Forum Archive Index - August 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Andrew,

Thanks for the extended chart.  It shows that over a 3-4 year 
timeframe GMF has been a fairly mediocre investment for the buy and 
hold investor.  What the chart doesn't show is the dividend payments, 
totalling around A28c per share summed over the 3 year period that 
the share has been trading at less than $NZ2  ( I think you are 
using the NZ price Andrew, correct? ).   28c Australian works out at 
around 34c New Zealand.   Add dividends to the chart to get a 'gross' 
chart and the returns look a little better.

I don't know about 'rising wedge patterns' , but on a purely 
fundamental basis I have a feeling that something might happen to 
disturb the current trend.  It is hard to see why the GFW shareprice 
would go into reverse from here, so I'd pick a flattening out of the 
uptrend until things consolidate a bit.  The market really needs to 
get a handle on what the 'new' GFW is going to perform like before 
the share price can go very far as I see it.

As I said in my last two posts on this share.  I think it is one to 
sit back and keep an eye on.  One to watch.

SNOOPY



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