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Re: [sharechat] Time for the troops to rally around the flag


From: "Theseus Management Group" <tj@tmg.co.nz>
Date: Sat, 20 Jul 2002 20:32:51 +1200


your scenario sounds pretty plausible to me.
 
we sold 95% of our shares 3 weeks ago and banked the profits for this year, above planned full year levels
 
so we will sit tight for a while and maybe not invest again at all for a good few months
 
options are definitely a serious 'option'
 
 
TJ
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 8:29 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Time for the troops to rally around the flag

I agree with Nick in some respects and Steven in others.  I can see a rally soon....it won't last long though.  Maybe 2-4 weeks.  I expect PPT to buy up large.
 
The rally cannot hide the truth however.  The market will win and that market will produce a recession in US next year.  Here mid - late next year maybe 2004.  Once the US consumer stops spending the US will close its doors to exports (or stop importing, whatever way you look at it). Our export sector will start crying in their milk (oops sorry Fonterra...no pun intended!).  The rising dollar will hurt exporters too.  The latest US trade figures saw the trade deficit @ US 34 billion for the last quarter.  The US economy is slowing grinding to a great, big, fat, halt.     
 
In February next year 'Dubbya' will try to kill Saddam and Oil prices will go ballistic.  Gold will follow.  I'm already looking at Oil future markets which will be new investing for me.
 
Let's have a guess at the next company to report dodgy stuff.  I say AOL/Time Warner.  We live in interesting times.  
 
Cheers. 
Nk  
 
---- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 2:06 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Time for the troops to rally around the flag

Nick,
 
 
I don't think all of the selling this morning was panic, the selling has been driven by falling earnings and future downgrades  eg. Sun Micro Systems
 
These companies are just not making as much money as everybody thought they were going to. On an earnings basis the Dow / Nasdaq / S & P are still overvalued by 20-30 %.
 
My view would be that eventually these markets will fall further. Time will tell.
 
 
Regards
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: nick
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 1:41 PM
Subject: [sharechat] Time for the troops to rally around the flag

The DOW is going to recover next week, today we saw some panic and on monday the weak hands will after a weekend of fretting cash in their chips. Then there will be a rally.

I suspect it would be a mistake to sell NZ stocks on monday, there are very good reasons why the NZ market should not crash like the DOW and any selloff is likely to be very shortlived.

It is always darkest before the dawn and it is in these times we see who has the balls for the markets.
Who had the minerals to buy AIR NZ in september when they were 15c?.

Remember one important fact, our stocks are not overvalued and any fear induced selling should be a big buy signal. Buy on mondays lows and if the DOW capitulates on monday buy more NZs on tuesday.

To sell on monday would mark you down as weak and scared. Dont think you can sell and buy back cheaper it wont work. The market will open very low and you will be the mug who sold at the bottom.  If you were going to sell it should of been weeks ago, most sensible people have been largely cashed up since april/may .  The other approach is to just hold and wait for the storm to pass. 

Sell in fear on monday morning would be like cowering in your trench when the lads went over the top. Get a grip and enjoy the ride

Time to show those lilly livered yanks that in NZ we are made of stronger stuff and are not going to throw in the towel because of a few bent CEOs, dodgy techs and the ghost of a dead towel head

  Nick

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