Forum Archive Index - June 2002

["nick" <helmett@xtra.co.nz>]

    I will have to stick up for Nick kearney here

 

   Snoopy wrote---a  declining US sharemarket is not news.  The DOW and NASDAQ has been
fairly toppy for a couple of years now.  So 'suddenly realizing this'
to the extent that you must sell everything on Monday is, I believe,
an expression of extreme jitteriness.  If you are an investor you t totally silly
need to be disciplined.  Nick's post shows no sign of discipline.

 

       One could also argue that the NZ market is now looking very toppy, making today a good time to sell.  Sure the US market has been doing poorly for sometime but many felt it was going to start heading upwards after april. That hasnt happened and there now appears a real danger of sharp declines.

      The australian market until recently was doing well too just like NZ . Yet now that too has turned very bearish, hasnt fallen much yet but the potential is there.  Our market has held out longer than the others but now looks like the only way to go is down.

         So for Nick to sell all his holdings today  is not totally silly, he will be getting out while the going is still good and he will have funds to reinvest after a correction.

   You say that a correction of 10-20% is normal, well even if it is normal why stick around for it? especially when commision costs of selling and rebuying are only around 2%. Plus there is always a chance the correction wont be "normal" in which case he would only be panicking once the market had already fallen, better out now.

         You may argue there may be no correction and that he will miss out on the NZ market surging up in the next few months, personally i think there is more chance of hell freezing over

 

Nick  (ratkin, lippy et al)