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Re: [sharechat] INL Sell

From: Sam and Jerry <>
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2002 14:11:45 +1200

Amen to your wise words about focusing what one HAS made on a trade, rather 
than what one COULD have made.  In the rather solitary life of an online 
investor, one can easily develope unrealistic unexpectations of what can be 
achieved  ...


Phaedrus wrote:

> Enrique,
>         There are many ways to make money in the sharemarket. One is to buy 
>stocks that have good fundamentals. Another is to buy stocks that are in a 
>long-term uptrend, and hold them for as long as the overall trend is up - 
>perhaps for many years. Another method is to attempt to trade the medium-term 
>trends that make up the long-term trend. This is what I do. The objective is 
>to avoid holding the stock if it is in a secondary correction, perhaps with 
>the view of buying back in when the uptrend resumes. Some people trade the 
>short-term trends that make up the medium-term trend. Some people day-trade. 
>Each of these approaches has its own strengths, weaknesses and 
>characteristics, and thus will appeal to different people. For any given 
>stock, and indeed for any given individual, one of these methods will prove 
>the most profitable.
>  Any medium-term sell point, in a stock that is in a long-term uptrend will 
>ALWAYS be surpassed, sooner or later. This does NOT make the signal "wrong". 
>GPG is not the only instance of this happening with charts I have posted. For 
>example in the ELD chart of 14/11/01 I posted a medium-term Sell signal at 21 
>cents - the latest price is 29 cents. The simple trendline based system giving 
>that exit signal had given an entry at 14 cents. That was a 60% profit in 8 
>weeks. I regard that as a very successful trade - not a failure because as it 
>happened I could have made more by holding on. Overall, I am better off 
>following these signals. You can always buy back in. I have in fact done just 
>that with AIA WHS GPG and ELD. You have to be true to your system. Look at how 
>well the same system got you out of stocks like THL VTL WAM CEN NCH TEL etc. 
>All of these stocks were sold at a profit, and all are now below the posted 
>sell point, by a very substantial amount in some cases.
>  I have attached an updated chart of GPG for you. GPG is still in an uptrend, 
>and we now have a new confirmed trendline. I can assure you that I will be 
>selling when this is broken. If the price then continues to climb further, I 
>will still regard this as a good trade. I do not expect to buy at the bottom. 
>I do not expect to sell at the top. I do not expect every trade to be 
>profitable. For my psychological health, I have found it best to focus on what 
>I make in a trade, rather than what I could have made. With hindsight, any 
>trade could be more profitable.
>                     Phaedrus.
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