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[sharechat] Forecasting US (and Local Stock Markets Direction

From: "dsproul" <>
Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2001 12:34:07 +1300

For chatters who don't subscribe to NY Times, an article which is of interest.
Many will be surprised how resilient the US markets have been considering that bad news and lower earnings reports overwhelmingly outweigh any good news..
Many will argue that there are plenty of  Australian and NZ companies that will be insulated against effects of a slowing US economy on this part of the world.
However the argument may not extend to the share prices of those companies as our markets tend to follow the trend of the US markets.
With Germany now also technically in recession, I am one who agrees with Mr CLIGGOTT (see article) that prices will go lower before they go higher.   Aust/NZ may not be immune from these effects.
And of course there is also the high possibility (IMO) that  one of the current political/religious hotspots (Pakistan, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Palestine) could erupt into a far more serious and widespread situation, having a demoralising effect on investor confidence.

FN:David Sproul

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