Seasonally adjusted retail sales down 0.2% in November

By NZPA

Friday 19th January 2007

Retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in November from October, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) says.

Excluding vehicle-related industries, sales for the core retailing group fell 0.1%.

The figures were slightly weaker than expected. Median figures in a Reuters poll of economists had been for a fall of 0.1% in all sales, and a rise of 0.1% in the figures excluding vehicle-related industries.

Actual sales for the year to November were up 4.5%, compared to an expected 4.4%.

The 0.2% fall in total retail sales, came after increases of 0.3% in October and 1.1% in September.

The figure would appear to reduce even further the chance of the Reserve Bank raising the Official Cash Rate next Thursday from its present 7.25%.

The weak retail figure comes after data on Wednesday showed the Consumers Price Index fell 0.2% in the December quarter.

That took the annual inflation rate to 2.6%, after having been outside the Reserve Bank's 1 to 3% target range in the previous five quarters.

UBS senior economist Robin Clements said today's negative retail figure was not big, but did err on the side of the Reserve Bank staying on hold next week.

BNZ head of market economics Stephen Toplis said a relatively soft figure had been expected for November after strong sales in October.

But if October and November were added together, and anecdotes for December were included, it pointed to "extraordinarily strong sales volumes in the fourth quarter".

SNZ said that only three of 24 industries surveyed had seasonally adjusted movements greater than $6 million.

Appliance retailing recorded the largest increase, up 5.2% or $11 million.

Department stores had the largest decrease, down 2.9% or $9m, followed by motor vehicle retailing, down 1.1% or $7m, SNZ said.

Auckland was the only region to show a lift in seasonally adjusted sales in November compared to October, lifting 0.5%.

Waikato was down 1.5%, Wellington down 0.5%, the rest of the North Island down 2%, Canterbury down 0.4%, and the rest of the South Island down 2.8%.

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