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Seasonal Climate Outlook: El Niño is here

Friday 29th September 2023

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• El Niño has officially arrived, and is likely to continue over summer. 

• Dramatic temperature swings are likely in the next three months, with periods of unseasonable warmth likely followed by sharply colder southerlies 

• Elevated chance for below normal rainfall in many regions 

• Above normal wind strength, with periods of potentially damaging winds 

• Greater fire danger potential than last year for many areas (For more info: 

• Marine heatwaves are expected to be less persistent and widespread than those that have occurred in previous years. 

A livestream will take place today at 11:30am: 

NIWA will be joined by FENZ colleagues to discuss fire weather risk in more detail.

Kind regards,




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