Rabobank picks $8.40 kg/MS forecast milk price for 24/25 dairy season, but warns global dairy price recovery now likely to be slower

Thursday 9th May 2024

With meaningful global milk supply growth remaining elusive, Rabobank has forecast an opening milk price of $8.40 kg/MS for the 2024/25 New Zealand dairy season.

In its Q2 Global Dairy Quarterly report titled Lower equilibrium, the agribusiness banking specialist says milk production from the main global export regions will expand only modestly in Q3 before gaining some momentum towards the end of the year.

“Low profitability over the past 12 months has led to a decrease in dairy herds in key regions like the US and South America while weather-related issues have also affected milk output in recent weeks, with diminished rains in New Zealand and excess rains in Europe,” report co-author Rabobank senior agricultural analyst Emma Higgins said.

“And this subdued global milk supply growth should help underpin a continuation of the dairy market recovery and an improvement in milk prices for dairy producers in most regions around the world.”

While this was the case, Ms Higgins warned, the recovery would not be smooth.

“Global demand recovery signals are mixed, and consumers’ purchasing power remains under pressure,” she said.

Media release

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