Migrant inflow picks up, adding potential prop to weak economy

Thursday 21st May 2009

New Zealand migrant inflows rose to a five-year high last month, stoking optimism that new arrivals will help stoke the nation’s weak economy.

A net 2,160 migrants arrived in April, the highest since January 2004 and up from1,730 in March, according to Statistics New Zealand. Short-term visitors climbed 9% in April from a year earlier to 195,900, though this mainly reflected the Easter break shifting from March in 2008 to April this year. Combining March and April, tourists numbers fell about 2%.

“In light of the deep recession and job losses being experienced in most key trading partners, we continue to think that New Zealand will experience sustained and strong net migrant inflows over the next three years,” said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.

“Today’s data makes it more likely that the housing market will sustain the sorts of activity levels, or better, that appear to have stabilized house prices in recent months.”

The report showed the net outflow of migrants heading to Australia in search of better-paying jobs has slowed, with a net 1,600 heading over the Tasman last month, down from 3,200 in April 2008. Strong inbound migrant numbers helped stoke demand in New Zealand housing market during its decade-long boom.

Visitors from Australia fueled the gain in tourist numbers, with 16,800 more people visiting New Zealand than in April 2008. Australia is being targeted in a $5 million marketing campaign between the government and Air New Zealand which Prime Minister John Key has estimated may generate $65 million of economic benefits.

Air New Zealand slipped 0.9% to $1.08 today and has gained 14% this year. Auckland International Airport fell 4% to $1.60 after today warning that revenue from its retail operations will be lower than expected as international passenger numbers dwindle. Campervan hire company Tourism Holdings was unchanged at 50 cents.

Few New Zealanders headed overseas in April than in the same month of 2008, declining 1% to 162,400.

Businesswire.co.nz

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