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National headed for outright win as Labour's support fades, Fairfax poll suggests

Wednesday 9th November 2011 2 Comments

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New Zealand’s ruling National Party is headed for an outright win, the first since the MMP system was introduced, while support for Labour has faded, according to a Fairfax Media poll.

National support was at 52.5 percent while Labour’s slipped to 25.9 percent, the poll shows. It would be the first time a party had won more than 50 percent of the vote since 1951, Fairfax reported.

If the results were repeated at the Nov. 26 election, Labour would lose 10 seats and National would pick up an extra nine seats.

The Greens, typically an ally of Labour, have seen their support rise to 12.6 percent, giving it seven more seats. It is the only minor party tracking above 10 percent.

Labour leader Phil Goff has improved his preferred prime minister rating to 13.5 percent from 9.1 percent, still well behind Prime Minister John Key on 52.2 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,000 people between Nov. 3 and Nov. 7 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

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Comments from our readers

On 9 November 2011 at 11:40 am Jerry said:
We might look with wry amusement at Italy's retention of lecherous party-boy Berlusconi and at Israel's retention of Netanyahu - the man of whom President Obama said "I have to work with him every day" - yet it looks like we're about to choose the same kind of “strong” leadership option. I always have thought kiwis are gullible when there's a crowd to follow. Thanks to failure in our education system and dumbed-down television media, we are putty in the paws of these wolves in sheep's clothing.
On 9 November 2011 at 6:13 pm Solaman said:
I find polls such as these as unreliable due to the small sampling an non-disclosure of methodology employed, such as the manner in which the extent of the sample that was undecided is allocated. For if 25% of those polled declared undecided, then the 52.5% percent reported would in fact be 52.5% of 75% of the sample, or 39.4% of the whole. And if party support is then statistically allocated amongst the undecided in the same proportions as the decided but they do not ascertain if the undecided will vote in the same numbers as the decided then the poll will be unreliable. The undecided will determine the outcome, the decided only the poll based headlines.
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