Westpac Global Markets Strategy Group
Tuesday 24th January 2012
|Text too small?|
Risk markets probed higher. Much of the London session was driven by reports (from Germany’s FTD for example) that a broad agreement between Greece and bondholders had been reached and negotiations were now focussed on detail, such as the level of the coupon on the swapped debt.
A level of 4.0% is supposedly agreeable, although the IMF troika and Germany are pressing for closer to 3.0%.
The S&P500 rose to a fresh post-July high of 1322 but then fell later in the NY morning by 0.9%, and is currently down 0.2%, after Dow Jones News reported a rumour that the IMF and EU will refuse to contribute any further towards Greece’s rescue.
The latest on this saga is a comment from an anonymous Greek official who said a final offer will be tabled on 13 February.
Other asset classes were more resilient, the CRB commodities index up 1.2%. US 10yr treasury yields are 5bp higher at 2.07%, earlier at 2.09% and breaking above a five-week range.
Eurozone peripheral yields are lower, the Greek 10yr down 59bp, Portugal down 18bp and Italy down 14bp.
The US dollar index continued its downward correction, losing around 0.5%. EUR rose from 1.2892 to 1.3053 and only slipped to 1.3005 after the negative DJ report. USD/JPY gyrated in a narrow 76.87-77.08 range.
AUD rose from 1.0485 to 1.0573, a 2 ½ month high, slipping in NY to 1.0517 with US equities. NZD rose from 0.8065 to 0.8142 – also a 2 ½ month high, and then slipped to 0.8092. AUD/NZD firmed slightly from 1.2980 to 1.3010.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: The local calendars are quiet. AUD momentum remains positive positive, now targeting above 1.0600. NZD has a similar upward bias with trend channel resistance at 0.8135.
No comments yet
NZ dollar gains on G20 preference for growth
NZ dollar dips as Wellington CBD checked for quake damage
NZ dollar gains, bolstered by RBA minutes, strong dairy prices
NZ dollar falls after central bank says it may scale up currency intervention
NZ dollar gains before CPI, helped by dairy gains, rally on Wall Street
NZ dollar trades little changed as US budget talks bear down on deadline
NZ dollar falls with equities on view US to sail over fiscal cliff
NZ dollar weakens as fiscal cliff looms, long bets unwind
NZ dollar sinks to three-week low as equities fall, fiscal talks in focus
NZ dollar slips as fiscal cliff talks grind slower in Washington