Forum Archive Index - June 2004

["Lazy Haggis" <lazyhaggis@hotmail.com>]

Gold - Ready to Mushroom, as are many gold stocks like PNA. We're at an 
interesting juncture. In fact a very interesting juncture. The high road and 
the low road, but they both lead into the clouds, one way or another. At 
times like today, fundamental and technical analysis really play second 
fiddle to geopolitical and sentiment analysis. For example, a simple 
arithmetic chart of the past 6 months (say PNA) is hardly likely to be much 
use as a predictive tool for the next 6 months. It should be used for what 
it's worth, a simple hindsight view for simple situations. At the moment, 
global events (geopolitical and sentiment) are not simple, and therefore, 
such types of technical analysis are a waste of time.

President Bush was not long in power when the terrorists pulled off their 
9/11 attack, and today, nearly all intelligent sources are expecting a 
nuclear "dirty bomb" or "suitcase bomb" to be used in the near future 
against Western interests and possibly on the USA mainland itself. The 
timing may be around 1104, but not being privy to the terrorists plans or 
timetable, please do your own research in this regard.

Between now and the end of the year, gold (and gold stocks like PNA) are 
likely to follow one of two paths, neither of which will be relevant to 
fundamental or technical analysis for long, if at all. Much will depend on 
the timing of terrorists, and their next big attack. The Middle East may 
well be the starting point, with oil being the major catalyst. At the 
moment, the terrorists are just playing games with the West, and are 
obviously building up and waiting for a much bigger game plan.

The world is becoming nervous as we wait, but clearly the first card is on 
the table. Media and political propaganda has made it abundantly clear, that 
attacks in Saudi Arabia on their oil infrastructure will wreck havoc on 
economies like the USA, and lead to a global recession. Obviously this is 
going to happen, and almost certainly, we may witness several 9/11 style 
attacks against key oil targets and tankers in the Middle East (particularly 
in Saudi Arabia) and there's very little the current defence forces can do 
to stop it. The timing is in the hand's of the terrorists. When this starts, 
oil will soar and gold will soar.

Stocks like PNA will head off into the clouds at a moments notice when a 
major terrorist strike occurs again, but my instinctive feel is that this 
may be timed for around the USA election period, and therefore don't be 
surprised if gold and associated stocks continue to drift for a while yet, 
or even make new lows. The real primer for gold at the moment is terrorism, 
and when it takes the world by surprise again, the next issue will be 
nuclear. Then, just stand back and watch what happens to gold and gold 
stocks.

Forget the simple 6 month arithmetic chart, it's meaningless. A nuclear 
conflict is very much on the radar screen.

Lazy Haggis
The Mumbo Jumbo Filter.

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