Forum Archive Index - May 2004

["Fiona Phibbs" <fibz@xtra.co.nz>]

Hi Snoopy

Okay, okay you've made your point.  Even with the most optimistic management
predictions of earning for 2005 dividends will only be in the vicinity of
9.7cps.

cheers Dean

----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, 24 May 2004 20:19
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Sailing into the sunset with Norgate?


> Hi Dean,
>
> >
> >>> I used 11.5c
> >>>
> >>
> >>That figure was based on earnings at the peak of the commodity
> >>cycle, so I think it is a less realistic base figure than 8.5c that
> >>has already been forecast as the dividend by WRI management for
> this
> >>year.
> >
> >Fair call.  The directors are always loath to cut dividends as it
> >makes them go red under the collar at AGM's, so I assumed that WRI
> >will try to ride out the low by not cutting theirs. Ive just this
> >moment lost my appraisal eport  - aren't they are also paying a
> >special dividend to keep the div around the same level?
> >
>
> Yes WRI are paying a special dividend,that does happen to keep the
> overall annual dividend steady.   However, since this was announced
> partly as a response to the Norgate bid, my guess is that this was a
> defensive measure.  The WRI dividend *would* have been cut, had
> Norgate not appeared on the scene with his RPI bid.
>
> Personally I would not build a business valuation model based that
> stretches many years out into the future based on the assumption that
> 'a Norgate' will appear every year to make sure that the dividend is
> never cut.
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
>
> >
> > > Both the figures $1.47 and $1.54 are surprisingly close to Norgates
> > > $1.50 bid.     That suggests to me that Norgate is not paying for
> > > any share price appreciation of WRI if he gets the reigns of
> > > control.   A tacit admission that he can't do better than the
> > > current management?
> >
> > Very good. I guess the point of the exercise in the long run is the
> > analyst that can predict the future variables better than any one else
> > 'gets the gold'.  If I do decide to continue to hold WRI I hope you're
> > right and I'm wrong :-)
> >
> > cheers Dean
> >
> >
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> > ------ To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
> > http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
>
> --
> Message sent by Snoopy
> on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
> http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
>
>


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/