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Re: [sharechat] a cautionary tale?

From: robin benson <>
Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 09:10:23 +0000

Hi Stephen

On 25 Feb 2004, at 07:52, Stephen Judd wrote:

> No, I had actually decided on 10%. I was slow to move because I felt
> convinced that hanging on a little while would turn them around (this
> has not happened with either today, which makes me feel a little
> better).

Aha! It's hard to stick to your plan and exit at 10% but might I 
suggest that you do, and at some point subsequently, revisit your 
decision and fine-tune (or wildly hack) your plan accordingly. Your 
"hanging on" appears to have cost you 8%, which as Snoopy would say, is 
an annual dividend worthy of consideration!

> On the other hand - doesn't stockpicking rest on believing that you 
> know
> know something about the future that other people don't?

Not necessarily. Sometimes people just don't think. They look around 
them and follow the what everybody else is doing. It's not that they 
don't know (sometimes they don't of course), but that they ignore it.

> Yes. Having recently read Malkiel's _Random Walk Down Wall St_ I'm 
> still
> deciding what I think about that.

Ask Woody ...

> I'm well persuaded that TA has something to say about when to pick your
> buy and sell moments, but I cannot reconcile myself to a long-term
> strategy that does not take the long-term viability of a company into
> account. OTOH, if I understand Phaedrus correctly, he is not a TA 
> purist
> either - he's using it to pick his moments, but not his stocks, if you
> will.

This appears to be the case. A lot of short-term trading (is this 
"investment" as most people understand it?) is pure TA (again ... 
Woody) but there are a number of people here who would use it to time 
entry and provide warning bells for exit.

> Incidentally, I'm posting this because looking back on the sharechat
> archives, we don't often talk about where we went wrong. I do feel a
> little defensive already,

No reason to!



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