Forum Archive Index - May 2002

[nickk@quicksilver.net.nz]

Good stuff Mr Nua.

I agree wholeheartedly.  BTW I might have been one of the 'nutters'
referred to.  I never held Gold up till about 2 weeks ago when I purchased
a Gold stock in Australia.  Going nicely thank you.

Why did I buy?  Not because I see the imminent collapse of commerce but
because it is a hedge against the US economy which is stuffed after years
of hype and hot air (not to mention a vastly overvalued US$).

It will get worse & my Gold stock will get better.  There is more to
economics than New Zealand's official cash rate.  The bigger picture is
teetering on a fine edge.  The consumers in the US are spending less.  That
has been the only thing holding the US economy together in the last two
years.  Once the US companies that are losing billions start laying off
staff ad nauseum watch the spending dry up.  Watch the US economy go into
recession and watch Gold increase again.  Remember that some companies over
there are reporting billion dollar losses; not to mention the corruption
and fraud.

I am not a doomsdayer.  Far from it.  The NZ economy might benefit from
this through foreign investment into companies here that have value. 
Hence, Snoopy's 'value companies' might do quite well.  If it happens watch
government politicians pat each other on the back saying it is due to
government policy.  Truth is, these things are cyclical.  The US dollar has
hit a peak and is now swinging down.  The NZ dollar bottomed out and is
heading up.  Efficient market?  Maybe.  George W won't step in like Bill
did (the great American Socialist).  Dubbya hasn't got the brains to handle
it.  He will bear the brunt of the backlash though.

That is me for today.  I've said enough and taken up most of my lunch
break!  

Nk

PS Oh I forgot - Japan is knackered too!  War is a possibility in various
places.  Terrorism is a frightening thought.  'Dubbya' will invade Iraq in
January or February (according to NY Times.  You won't read that in the
'Herald'.)  I think Gold is a value investment amongst all this.  Want to
add it to your portfolio Snoopy?

Now, where are those sandwiches?    

 Mr Nua writes:

> I have a ShareChat joke for you all...
> 
> "Knock Knock...."
> 
> What's that?
> 
> Usually someone commenting on someone elses strategy on ShareChat.
> 
> 
> O.K, so it's a bad joke, but by now we should be all educated enough to 
>realise that there are hundreds of ways to make money on the stock market and 
>not just bag others outright.
> 
> The fact that many posters here dismiss some of the Gold postings as "Gold 
>nutters", disguises the fact that there have been (and may continue to be) 
>some good gains to be made in Gold stocks. The graphs below show the Spot gold 
>price from 1979 and a close up of the current price. Not too sexy up until a 
>few months ago. But few can deny that there has been a definite change in 
>trend.
> 
> The situation reminds me of the internet stock explosion. Many posters using 
>fundamental analysis were glad to see the end of the dot boom. Comments like 
>"Warren didn't invest in it because he didn't understand it" and "Punters 
>investing on air" hid the fact that there were 100's of %s to be made if you 
>had your exit criterea in place.
> 
> The same can be said for the current moves in Gold price. Commodity traders 
>long on Gold have made thousands of %. Traders in gold stocks over the past 
>few months are making great returns on their investments. 
> 
> Posters should understand that simply because your strategy is different to 
>others, their strategy (or yours) is not necessarily wrong. Anyone who is 
>making money on gold stocks right now - Good on you. Everyone who is making 
>money from regular dividends - Good on you too. 
> 
> Every time I read a post bagging "Gold nutters" or "Technical mumbo jumbo" I 
>can't help wondering if there is a little jealousy, that someone right now 
>(and prehaps not over the longer term) is making more money than you on the 
>markets.
> 
> Nua
> 
> Go Gold!
> Go Technicals!
> Go Fundamentals!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 




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