Forum Archive Index - December 2001

["Viewpoint ." <viewpoint_@hotmail.com>]

Last weekend's discussion about the long term bear market we are in prompted 
this remark from Jared - I dont want to be in the middle of a bear market 
for the next 15 odd years. How will I make a living? Aaaaaargghhhhhh. This 
could be the biggest market timing mishap on my part, unless I start 
shorting stocks?!? ;-)

Jared, consider this. The NZSE40 is up 18% since Sept 19, the S&P 500 is up 
21% since the Sept 21. And tech stocks are up 50% since Sept 19.

Some say it is a new bull market. But stocks in the USA rose more than 20% 
on 5 occasions between '29 and '32. And in Japan, there were also 5 rallies 
that took stocks up 20% or more during the 1990s - as the market fell from 
39,000 to below 10,000.

Yeah Jared - timing is everything. You had no control over the timing of 
your entry into the world but you can control/manage the times you are both 
in and out of the the market for the next ?? years.

So don't despair mate - history says there will be plenty of opportunities 
in the future, even if the index followers or the buy and hold fanatics will 
probably find their caapital has eroded.




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