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[sharechat] RBC and AIRNZ

From: Greg <g&>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 21:41:17 +1200

Title: RBC and AIRNZ
Anyone out there still keeping an eye on RBC? I note it has been in gradual decline for a short while, but as Phaedrus points out, a reversal recently. and today at 67c, so still on slight incline.

I have today swapped FFS for RBC and interested in any collective wisdom on what is happening there.  Aware that forests are still waiting on CNIFP resolution and that could be anytime. What other factors play on RBC at the moment?

Secondly, it has been tempting to get into AirNZ these last couple of days (probably on speculation more than common sense). I tried yesterday but they'd suspended. Today I stayed away, but observed a 30% rise on the Bs. Common sense says the shares are worth about 50c (based on snoopy's nta minus 20%) but that if the airline is losing money daily, this asset value is decreasing. Also, recapitalisation plans may be announced any day which further dilute this value. Or they may just find they can't get the capital and need a massive restructure (read downsizing and divestment). Furthermore, if a rights issue is to be offered at 20c-ish, why buy shares now at 40c (if you already own plenty at the old values). I see most of the wise heads saying the stock is too volatile, stay away. And yet somebody's been making good gains these last couple of days. I have friends overseas who are jumping in.  Somebody tell me it may have been a good idea on Tuesday, but its not such a good idea anymore?

Disc - hold AIRVB from way back, hold RBC.

Greg E.


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