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From: | "Peter" <pmaiden@xtra.co.nz> |
Date: | Sun, 17 Jun 2001 14:19:38 +1200 |
Phaedrus -
great post and thanks
Interesting that you picked on
EBO for this analysis. EBO is one of my picks in the Beat the Broker competition
that is not going too well.
I became interested in EBO in
early January (based on a whole lot of fundamentals and background) and was
ready to buy then. However as you point out in your post the timing of
purchases, and selling, can make a big difference to returns - even for those
who tend to hold shares for a while.
EBO was 280 in early January but
was still trending down so a purchase decision was delayed. Even the incraese to
300 in early February did not break through the trendline. Since then the EBO
price has drifted down to 250 odd and in spite of some bursts of activity the
price hasn't really moved from that level.
For long term investments I work
from weekly charts and the price is still to break through the down trend line
that started back in June 2000.
I still have not bought any EBO
shares because the trend line has not been broken. Even this weeks burst to 262
(had it stayed there until Friday) would not have triggered a buy.
I relate this experience as
support to what Phaedrus has been saying. Even for those investing longer
term, trends can signal the best times to buy and sell so maximum profits
can be extracted.
Having second thoughts about EBO
though. Still an interesting company to follow but the exposure to overseas
currency on their margins and the lack of liquidity in their shares are putting
me off.
Cheers
Peter
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