Forum Archive Index - September 2000

["Peter Maiden" <pmaiden@today.com.au>]

Mark - yes the recent fall in NUF is quite dramatatic and I feel that there has 
to be some underlying reason - not just sentiment.

These sort of stocks have been out of favour for some time overseas (look at 
Wesfarmers, Orica and Incitec in OZ). They are all real cyclical stocks and 
insofar as the cropcare side of their businesses it seems to have all been bad 
news.

However I too thought the NUF price had bottomed out a few months ago and had a 
small dabble in them. Obviously not as many as you at the same prices as you.

Besides dealing in agriculture related products I saw some good things in the 
marketplace in their specialty chemicals area. Since getting in they have also 
announced some advances in trying to develop natural pesticides.

The events of the last few days I don't think are related to oil, supply or 
currency. These sort of campanies are very good at keeping prices up (one of 
them closes a plant down for maintenance and creates a worldwide demand 
problem). Any exposure to a bad (or good) agriculture sector performance I 
would have thought would have already been built in to the price.

What was interesting on Friday was that the activity all happened after lunch. 
Looking at the ASX deals the price did not fall as much as in NZ - maybe a 
Monday catchup.

The only reasonable explanation for the current activity is that the soon to be 
 profit announcement is not good news. They stuffed around with balance dates 
last year and warned all that true comparisons might be hard to do. Also 
June/July are loss making months for them (look at the announcements) - maybe 
this winter has been really bad.

Interesting what might happen Monday - but unfortunately not looking too good.

However if my prognosis right and there has been a lot of activity before a bad 
announcement makes you wonder ................... (another story I don't want 
to get involved in)

Good luck

Peter

Disc - have a few NUF 

(Ben - would JJC bail out because the Eagles are going to lose again? or they 
could make a second half recovery so double your bet?)   

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