Forum Archive Index - September 1999

["Brent Wheeler" <brentw@bwcl.co.nz>]

John
Agree with your analysis.  It does raise a couple of interesting points for
us dabblers on the side:
*    it pays to remember that the good Mr Watson is in all probability (and
in fact) diversified into other areas which we might not be and so maybe
that is why he can afford to not bank profits after a ride  from $0.17 to
$1.40 way way north of 100% returns
*    your prognosis on ITC is the same story - here we have some
diversification of management talent and not sole dependence on one
individual. Surely more prudent longer term. Look at the BIL story.  Once
the guru left shorting was the only way to go.
*    in NZ of all places it pays to remember the horrors of no liquidity.
Strathmore is no FCL when it comes to liquidity so slippage getting out etc
are important considerations.

I guess for me the most sobering reminder at present is Warren Buffet -
probably the world's greatest investor to date - but note,  he got done in
Salomans, he sold McDonalds just before it took off again and Coca Cola is
having a horrible time.  I have no doubt he will surprise us all again but
it is worth a thought.

I wonder if Strathmore is not the classic example of where "dragging" your
trailing stop up behind you isn't called for? Again liquidity is an issue.

Useful interchange anyway.
Dr Brent Wheeler
Director
Brent Wheeler & Co. Limited
AUCKLAND


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