Sharechat Logo

U.S. Bond Markets Are Driving Force Behind the New Gold Rush

Friday 24th July 2020

Text too small?

Deepening negative real yields in the U.S. Treasury market are fuelling a frenetic rally in gold that’s boosting the precious metal toward a record.

Bullion has gained 24% this year and is about $45 from an all-time high. And with five-year Treasuries now yielding -1.16% once the effects of inflation are stripped out, the lowest close in seven years, there’s little reason to expect a slowdown in precious-metal buying as investors fret about the economic outlook, prospects for further outbreaks of Covid-19 and the impact of central-bank bond buying.

“Gold is a superior form of purchasing power protection and as real rates dive significantly below zero here, gold is relatively more attractive as a hedge,” said Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott Inc., a precious metals specialist with about $8 billion under management.

With investors looking for safe-haven assets that won’t lose value, they’re pouring record amounts into precious-metal exchange-traded funds. So far this year, ETFs have increased their gold holdings by 28% to more than 105 million ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, taking the total value to $195 billion.

Real yields are also driving investors away from the U.S. dollar, which is currently trading near the lowest since March against a basket of currencies, Makoto Noji, chief foreign-exchange and bonds strategist for SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo, wrote in a research note.

Silver Boon

Silver has also posted a spectacular rally as the forces driving gold spill into other precious metals. The spot price has gained almost 20% in the past week to around $23 an ounce, the highest in almost seven years.

The rally may become self-perpetuating as the publicity gained by higher prices draws more people to invest in precious-metals funds.

“The combination of low-to-negative government bond yields plus a weakening U.S. dollar, and most importantly, massive central bank accommodation, supports financial demand,” said Stephane Monier, chief investment officer at Geneva-based Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA. “This relationship between gold and real yields has held for the last decade and recent central bank interventions have reinforced the case for holding gold as a portfolio diversification tool.”

Gold first breached $1,000 an ounce during the global financial crisis in 2008 before reaching a record $1,921.17 an ounce in September 2011. This year’s rally puts it on course for its biggest annual gain in a decade.

“The damage inflicted to the dollar as a result of fiscal spending and falling real interest rate due to monetary easing provide bullish factors for gold,” said Yuichi Ikemizu, head of the Japan Bullion Market Association. “As long as this environment continues, gold will continue to rise.”

— With assistance by Elena Mazneva, and Y-Sing Liau

Source: Bloomberg




  General Finance Advertising    

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Add your comment:
Your name:
Your email:
Not displayed to the public
Comment:
Comments to Sharechat go through an approval process. Comments which are defamatory, abusive or in some way deemed inappropriate will not be approved. It is allowable to use some form of non-de-plume for your name, however we recommend real email addresses are used. Comments from free email addresses such as Gmail, Yahoo, Hotmail, etc may not be approved.

Related News:

FY20 results guidance met, Results date, Banking Facility
Sky sells OSB assets to NEP NZ, secures 10 year partnership
NZX fully operational - announcement re COVID-19
Heartland Market Update
Steel & Tube Fy20 Trading Update
Further Contract Win Strengthens Scott Technology’s Position In Mining Sector
New Talisman - Chairman’s Address to AGM 2020 August 6, 2020
T&G reports its 2020 Interim Results
TruScreen strengthens its market presence in central and eastern Europe
Refining NZ announces non-cash impairment

IRG See IRG research reports