NZ Dollar Outlook: Kiwi may decline as traders eye inflation outlook, dairy auction

Monday 16th May 2016

The New Zealand dollar may decline this week as traders weigh updates on the inflation outlook and dairy prices, and the US dollar looks set to strengthen.

The kiwi may trade between 65.70 US cents and 69.75 cents this week, according to 10 currency advisers surveyed by BusinessDesk. Seven expect a decline, and three are picking it to be neutral. None is expecting a gain. It recently traded at 67.54 US cents.

In New Zealand, the main event this week is the release of the Reserve Bank's survey of inflation expectations tomorrow, with any decline likely to stoke speculation for further interest rate cuts and dent demand for the kiwi. Traders will also be eyeing results from the GlobalDairyTrade auction early Wednesday morning as they mull the outlook for New Zealand's largest commodity export. Analysts expect US dollar strength to continue with expectations inflation data and updates from the Federal Reserve will be supportive.

"Broad-based US dollar buying so far this month (the US dollar index has risen 3 percent) has pushed NZD/USD lower. We expect more to come during the week ahead," Westpac Banking Corp New Zealand senior market strategist Imre Speizer said in a note. "This week’s NZ calendar is busy, and includes the important inflation expectations survey conducted by the RBNZ. Any surprises here will influence the June monetary policy statement decision on 9 June."

The GlobalDairyTrade auction is expected to be the last before Fonterra Cooperative Group publishes its initial forecast farmgate milk price for the upcoming 2016/17 season later this month.

Other data scheduled for release in New Zealand this week includes second-quarter producer prices on Wednesday, ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey on Thursday, and April migration and tourism on Friday.

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler is giving a lunchtime speech to the Institute of Directors in Hamilton on Wednesday.

Australia's Reserve Bank publishes the minutes to its last meeting tomorrow and the country has employment data Thursday.

The Federal Reserve releases its minutes on Wednesday and the European Central Bank publishes its minutes on Thursday.

BusinessDesk.co.nz

Comments from our readers

No comments yet