Sharechat Logo

NZ business confidence knocked by pre-election jitters in third quarter

Tuesday 3rd October 2017

Text too small?

New Zealand firms' optimism about the economy fell in the September quarter on pre-election jitters, but companies still expect better times ahead.

A seasonally adjusted net 7 percent of firms surveyed in the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey of business opinion anticipate better economic conditions in the coming year versus 17 percent in the June quarter.

“A decline in business confidence is not unusual heading into a general election, as businesses and households hold off committing to major spending plans given the uncertainty over the formation of the new government,” said NZIER’s principal economist Christina Leung.

The incumbent National Party and the Labour-Green bloc are currently in talks with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters to form a government after there was no outright winner in the September election. Peters has said he will not make a decision before all votes are counted, something which is expected to take place by Oct. 7.

NZIER's Leung said the decline in confidence “does tend to be temporary” but will depend on how long it takes to form the new government and what that government eventually looks like. She also noted the decline in business confidence ahead of this election was less severe than before other elections.  On average, the pre-election fall in confidence has been 19 percentage points, she said. 

There was a decline in business confidence in most regions, although Northland a notable exception, which she said may have been “buoyed by election campaign promises of major spending on infrastructure in the region.”

A seasonally adjusted net 13 percent of firms surveyed experienced stronger trading in the three months to September versus 17 percent in the June quarter. However, in terms of expected activity, a seasonally adjusted 27 percent predict an improvement versus 24 percent in the June quarter.

Firms experienced a fall in earnings with 6 percent showing worse profitability in the September quarter, compared with 1 percent that saw worse profitability in the June quarter. Looking ahead, however, 13 percent expect better profitability in the coming quarter, versus 6 percent in the prior quarter.

There was a further drop in confidence in the building sector, which fell to 3 percent in the September quarter from 18 percent in the June quarter and 31 percent in the March quarter. NZIER noted that June quarter gross domestic product data showed another contraction in construction and “indicators suggest further softening in construction activity is likely in the near term.”

The services sector also saw a decline in confidence, falling to 2 percent in the September quarter from 20 percent in the June quarter. It was largely driven by weaker demand in the financial services sector which also reflected slowing property market activity, said Leung.

Firms continued to struggle to find labour in the September quarter with a net 46 percent saying it was hard to find skilled workers and a net 27 percent struggling with unskilled staff, compared to 47 percent for skilled hires and 23 percent for unskilled in June.

However, a net 14 percent of firms took on more staff in the September period and a net 19 percent expect to hire in the coming three months, versus 13 percent and 12 percent in June.  

Capacity utilisation was 91.3 percent from 92.1 percent in June, driven by lower utilisation across all sectors.

Despite the weaker confidence, investment intentions are “solid” with a rebound in investment plans for buildings, said Leung. Firms lifted their investment intentions for buildings with a net 18 percent expecting to invest in the coming year versus a net 3 percent in the June quarter.  A net 17 percent expect to invest in plant and machinery compared to 20 percent in June.

Costs remained a concern for firms, with a net 30 percent experiencing higher costs in September compared to 26 percent in June.  

Regarding interest rates, a net 39 percent expect a hike compared to 38 percent in the June quarter.

Against a backdrop of a further easing in capacity utilisation and steady pricing indicators, Leung said there is “little urgency” for the central bank to begin lifting rates and she expects the official cash rate to remain on hold until “at least” late 2018.  

(BusinessDesk)



  General Finance Advertising    

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Add your comment:
Your name:
Your email:
Not displayed to the public
Comment:
Comments to Sharechat go through an approval process. Comments which are defamatory, abusive or in some way deemed inappropriate will not be approved. It is allowable to use some form of non-de-plume for your name, however we recommend real email addresses are used. Comments from free email addresses such as Gmail, Yahoo, Hotmail, etc may not be approved.

Related News:

Now is the time to reassess your investments
Now is the time to reassess your investments
Fonterra looking to lift China's importance in new strategy
A2, Synlait shares climb as takeover bid revives optimism about Chinese appetite for milk
Service sector activity eases in August but still expanding
Lumpy imports drive bigger July trade deficit than expected
Nimbys, carparks and the status quo under threat as govt tells big cities: grow up and out
Dairy manufacturers got better prices in June quarter
Orr defends RBNZ rate cut, says monetary policy looks ahead, not behind
RBNZ's Orr says investors need to put their money to work