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[sharechat] AIA time to think by macdunk.

From: "Duncan MacGregor" <>
Date: Fri, 31 Oct 2003 16:48:55 +1300 (New Zealand Daylight Time)

There seems to be a bit of misunderstanding on the AIA position.      The first thing to consider Is the existing airport Is good for the next fifty years.     If they did open up a new airport at Whenuapai, the planes would pass over existing high class suburbs, plus prime potential land for future development.   Anyone thinking of cheap options If they had another think will realize that this option Is not on.     The second thing to consider Is, will planes of the future require runways?.    If they do require runways, the runway should go east west with landing or take off from the coast line.     It would be a much cheaper option to buy a couple of farms on the west coast by Helensville, and turn that Into an airport rather than ruin millions of dollars worth of real estate on the north shore.         The existing runways at Whenuapai are as useful as tits on a bull as far as commercial travel Is concerned, they might as well not be there.   Another misunderstanding applies to the high PE of AIA.       Some people think that a high PE means that the share Is fully priced with not much upside left.       If a company share price Increases by 20pc pa, and the PE remains static all It means Is the company Is earning 20pc more.    The PE means nothing all that counts Is earnings and future earnings.     Lets say macdunk bought AIA last year and lets suppose the share price Increased by 20pc and the PE remained the same all It means Is they earn 20pc more than they did last year.   In my field people ask advice on buying a house which works out the same way.    My advice Is buy what you really want, even although It Is slightly overpriced because next year the price will be right, and the year after you have a bargain.     The greater the Increase In aia earnings the lower my PE for the company becomes from my Initial Investment so the Pe for my holdings decreases as the earnings rise.   Auckland airport expect a rise In custom of thirty pc my conservative estimate Is a share price rise of 20pc plus dividends PE who cares It means less than nothing.
           cheers macdunk 
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