Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Phaedrus,

>
>Let me give you some statistics on a completely mechanical
>short-term trading system that I have been running on selected
>Nasdaq stocks for nearly two years :
><snip>
>


Interesting, but I don't think this will be sufficient to save 
sharechat from more of Travis's terror attacks ;-).

I don't think that Travis has ever denied that it is possible to make 
some money, at least short and medium term, by trading.

Travis's argument is that trends are essentially random before they 
happen (in other words they are only visible in hindsight) so it is 
impossible to make more money from a trend following system, in 
comparison with a straight 'cut your losses' system where you exit 
your trade if you lose a certain amount regardless of the trend.

Travis is asking for proof, which does not mean a series of 
anecdotes.  He wants an experiment where you are stacking one trading 
system up against another.  One system using trends, the other not, 
but both operating in the same market which will make a side by side 
comparison possible.

SNOOPY





.


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