Forum Archive Index - August 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Phaedrus,

Well, wasn't it you that said all trends end eventually (or words to 
that effect).  This one has been steaming along upwards for over a 
year, which I guess goes to show that if you look hard enough there 
are shares in uptrends even if the market overall is in a downtrend.

I guess my remarks may have been a little cryptic in my earlier post. 
I had in my mind that if it was the 'old' Goodman Fielder I might be 
looking at selling out.  However, if you look at the fundamentals 
(sorry to mention the 'f' word) I think things are changing.  If GMF 
can indeed break out of the 'commodity' food business then perhaps 
this uptrend may be sustained for quite a bit longer.  Very easy to 
say I know, but rather more difficult to do with the troops on the 
ground.  Personally I think new CEO Tom Park is on the right track. 
So I am no longer in any mind to sell GMF until I see more of what he 
can deliver.  

Thanks for the chart by the way.  I think a lot of the uptrend can be 
explained by the fact that GMF is having a share buyback on market 
at the moment.   I always like these, as it is a good way of shaking 
out the weak sellers.  However, the buyback won't go on forever, and 
it will be interesting to see if Park has some as yet unspoken 
rapid expansion plan for the remaining businesses.   He might 
even start looking at acquiring some dubious business that would 
cause the share price to pike.   Hence my suggestion that GMF should 
be 'watched'.  I guess I am suggesting that this might be a case of 
looking at the fundamentals to determine the likely direction of 
future trends.  Interesting times for GMF!

Snoopy

 
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