Forum Archive Index - August 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Dear Chatters,

As promised, this is how I see the 'BIL' equation.

Global assumptions used are as follows:
--------------------------------------

Exchange Rates: $NZ1= 47.5 USc
                $NZ1= 85 SGPc
                $NZ1= 30 UKp


Total number of BIL International shares on issue:

1,368,000,000


Specific assumptions, relating to the assets below are included with
the relevant calculations.  Where not specified below the dollar and
cents amount shown represent New Zealand dollars:


--------------------------------------


>
>
> Assets:
>
> A1/Property Plant and Equipment
>

$US4m, or 0.6c/share.


>
>
> A2/Investment Property (Molokai Ranch)
>
>


$168m, or 25.9c/share.


>
> A3/Investments in Associates
>
> -3a/ Thistle Hotels
>


BIL International holding is 46%.
Total of 'Thistle' shares on issue is 998,800,000

Asset backing is 1.120(THO), where THO is the thistle share price
quoted in UK pounds but the result is in $NZ


>
> -3b/ Air New Zealand
>


Air New Zealand total holding is 5.4%
Total Air New Zealand shares on issue are 4,203,354,290

Asset backing is 0.1659(AIR), where AIR is the Air New Zealand share
price in $NZ, and the result is in $NZ



>
>
> A4/Listed Investments
> -A4i/ Fraser & Neave
>
>

Fraser and Neave total holding is 8.8%
Total Fraser and Neave shares on issue are 295,572,803

Asset backing is 0.02237(FRNM), where FRNM is the Fraser and Neave
share price in $SGP, but the result is in $NZ

>
>
>
> A5/Other Investments
>
> -A5i/ Bass Strait Oil Royalty
>


$US69.1m or 10.6c/share



>
> -A5ii/ Unlisted Company Shares
>
>


$US20m or 3c/share


>
> A6/Short Term Assets
>
>


$US552.4m or 85c/share


>
>
> Total:  SumA1A6                          {&1&}
>
>


125.1 + 0.02237(FRNM) + 0.1659(AIR) + 1.120(THO)


>
> Liabilities:
>
> L1/Due under 1 year
>
>

$US157.9m or 24.3c/share

>
>
> L2/Due 1-2 years
>
>

$US600m or 92.3c/share

>
>
> L3/Due 2-5 years
>
>

$US110.6m or 17.0c/share

>
>
> L4/Over 5 years
>
>

$US219.4m or 33.7c/share

To all of this must be added the 'provisions' (liabilities on office
relocation and pension schemes)

$US9.4m or 1.4c/share

>
>
> Total:  SumL1L4
>
>

168.7c/share

>
> SO to get the result we want, the net tangible asset backing is:
>
> NTA= SumA1A6 - SumL1L4
>
>

This gives:

NTA=0.02237(FRNM)+0.1659(AIR)+1.120(THO)-$NZ0.436

If we put in FRNM= $SGD7.85 AIR=$0.65c and THO=£1.28, which are the
market prices (near enough) at the time I write this we get:

NTA= $NZ1.28

So the answer to the question is BIL International trading at below
its asset backing is 'very much yes' as I see it.

*Provided*, that is, you believe all the asset values that are listed
in the annual report.  Would anyone like to put forward an argument
that one or more of these assets is not recorded or trading at fair
value?

SNOOPY

disclosure: hold BRY






---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
----------------------------------
"Sometimes to see the wood from the trees,
you have to cut down all the trees."



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